NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	99		Excitement	6.9 [419]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (DEN): +16.3%
Denver Nuggets	106		Comeback	2.2 [713]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -23.3%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jake Tsakalidis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	13	56%	0.14	5	-0.14	1	0%	-0.03
Shane Battier	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	14	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	20	56%	0.06	3	-0.09	3	0%	-0.05
James Posey	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	15	53%	-0.00	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	13	42%	0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	7	43%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.04	0.00	15	75%	0.21	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	6	77%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	8	76%	0.13	3	-0.07	5	40%	-0.03
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	15	51%	0.05	1	-0.01	11	82%	0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	13	44%	0.06	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Trepagnier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.22,-0.23,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.23	-0.23	-0.16	-0.06	0.01	17	35%	-0.18	2	-0.06	9	56%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	27.5	15.6	25.2	1.7	34.2	132.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +24.3%

DEN +10.4%

MEM -14.2%

DEN +28.1%

DEN +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	15.4	15.7	107.6	114.0	100.5
season	15.3	14.9		102.3	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		101.1	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.8	16.1	17.6	16.0	15.8
DEN	13.4	15.9	16.7	16.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	61	64	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.25	10	-17	27	15.0	17.2	-2.18	15.0	16.2	-1.29
Jake Tsakalidis	9	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-5	3	17.0	15.7	1.35	15.8	15.3	0.47
Jason Williams	55	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-7	7	13.7	18.8	-5.11	14.7	16.4	-1.70
Pau Gasol	79	79	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.22	-1	-6	5	15.3	18.5	-3.21	15.3	15.4	-0.09
Shane Battier	79	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.26	-1	-6	5	16.0	14.7	1.27	15.6	14.0	1.62
Earl Watson	37	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	0	-7	18.8	13.7	5.11	16.4	14.7	1.70
James Posey	73	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-1	-5	15.5	16.9	-1.40	15.7	14.3	1.38
Bo Outlaw	25	27	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	3	-13	17.2	15.3	1.89	14.9	15.5	-0.66
Bonzi Wells	42	43	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.12	-18	11	-29	16.8	14.9	1.85	15.2	15.5	-0.31

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney White	26	25	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-3	13	15.5	15.3	0.15	18.3	14.9	3.43
Chris Andersen	34	31	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-3	13	15.5	15.3	0.18	16.5	15.4	1.01
Voshon Lenard	79	78	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	1	5	15.5	14.7	0.75	15.6	16.8	-1.18
Earl Boykins	77	76	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	3	1	15.3	15.5	-0.18	15.6	16.9	-1.32
Ryan Bowen	14	14	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	1	5	15.8	15.3	0.51	18.9	15.2	3.63
Nene	74	74	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	4	-1	15.0	16.6	-1.60	15.3	17.7	-2.41
Carmelo Anthony	74	73	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.27	-2	9	-11	15.3	15.6	-0.28	15.3	17.5	-2.20
Andre Miller	76	77	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	9	-11	15.2	16.0	-0.79	15.2	18.5	-3.29
Jeff Trepagnier	5	6	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	7	-7	17.4	15.2	2.16	15.3	15.8	-0.48
Francisco Elson	6	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	7	-7	17.0	15.2	1.76	18.7	15.6	3.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.49,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 78, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.95,1,1,1,1	93.7%
DEN 84, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.42,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.44,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.96,1,1,1	93.1%
CHA 90, CLE 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.83,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.0%