NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	3.5 [1075]		MVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): +2.4%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	1.1 [911]		LVP	Chris Gatling (DEN): -14.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Johnson	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	14	58%	0.04	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.08	0.01	-0.09	6	37%	0.03	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Antonio Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	70%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Jerome Kersey	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	18	53%	0.03	4	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
Mario Elie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	6	44%	-0.03	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
David Robinson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	21	58%	0.00	4	-0.05	10	60%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	8	74%	0.04	4	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	9	45%	-0.00	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	71%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	12	54%	0.00	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	7	20%	-0.03	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	0.04	12	62%	0.00	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	31%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.03	0.02	15	54%	0.00	6	-0.15	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	0.2	29.2	15.5	24.6	2.4	32.5	131.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +8.6%

SAS +14.1%

SAS +4.5%

SAS +19.7%

SAS +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	13.8	15.2	101.9	95.1	101.7
season	15.5	14.8		101.6	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.4		103.7	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.0	14.6	13.4	15.5	14.1
DEN	14.2	14.8	14.9	11.6	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	94	92	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.16	12	-3	15	13.8	16.8	-2.96	13.9	13.6	0.26
Mario Elie	83	82	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	0	9	14.1	14.1	0.04	13.8	14.0	-0.27
Avery Johnson	79	78	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-1	11	13.8	15.1	-1.26	14.1	13.0	1.14
David Robinson	84	80	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	6	-3	13.8	15.3	-1.45	14.2	12.5	1.76
Terry Porter	44	44	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.18	2	7	-5	13.9	14.3	-0.41	13.4	14.1	-0.71
Jerome Kersey	47	45	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	1	7	13.1	15.0	-1.90	14.8	13.1	1.65
Malik Rose	30	32	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.11	3	6	-3	15.8	13.4	2.35	12.8	14.3	-1.49
Jaren Jackson	34	33	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	10	-11	15.9	13.3	2.57	13.2	14.1	-0.87
Antonio Daniels	25	24	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	10	-11	15.1	13.8	1.26	13.0	14.1	-1.14

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	10	10	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-12	15	13.6	13.9	-0.26	16.8	13.8	2.96
Bryant Stith	40	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.15	1	-10	11	13.4	14.1	-0.71	14.3	14.0	0.32
Cory Alexander	59	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.33	6	-15	21	13.7	14.0	-0.29	13.5	15.1	-1.69
Chris Gatling	58	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.34	5	-14	19	12.8	15.1	-2.29	15.5	12.4	3.03
Keon Clark	46	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-9	9	12.8	14.7	-1.87	14.1	14.1	0.04
Raef LaFrentz	33	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	0	-9	16.0	12.8	3.16	12.7	14.8	-2.05
George McCloud	47	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-6	3	13.2	14.3	-1.11	15.0	13.5	1.50
James Posey	63	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-3	-3	13.7	14.1	-0.44	14.0	14.4	-0.43
Nick Van Exel	35	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.13	-15	6	-21	15.1	13.1	1.99	14.5	13.9	0.60
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	62	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	1	-11	14.1	13.4	0.71	14.0	14.3	-0.32
Antonio McDyess	57	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.11	-17	8	-25	14.5	13.0	1.45	13.1	15.5	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 93, OKC 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.01,0	97.4%
LAL 119, CLE 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0	97.2%
UTA 108, SAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0	96.8%