NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	100		Excitement	2.1 [1239]		MVP	Michael Doleac (ORL): +6.4%
Orlando Magic	120		Comeback	1.0 [1154]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): -8.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Davis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Tony Farmer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.05	16	61%	0.01	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	9	37%	-0.00	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Sam Jacobson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	3	75%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Sam Mack	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vonteego Cummings	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	14	59%	-0.00	4	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	11	60%	-0.01	4	-0.04	8	50%	-0.02
Mookie Blaylock	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	9	30%	-0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
John Starks	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	9	35%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.15	0.00	-0.06	8	0%	-0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	0.00	0.05	15	74%	0.08	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	15	62%	0.06	2	-0.00	10	90%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	62%	0.03	2	-0.01	3	67%	0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	100%	0.03	4	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	70%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	7	50%	-0.01	3	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.04	15	51%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.5	32.4	15.8	31.2	2.4	26.6	134.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +38.8%

ORL +4.5%

GSW -1.3%

ORL +4.4%

ORL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	12.2	15.2	94.3	114.3	101.7
season	14.7	13.6		97.2	100.4
opponent	15.4	14.7		99.3	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.0	18.3	15.1	13.0	15.1
ORL	12.6	9.3	12.5	14.1	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Farmer	18	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-22	24	12.4	15.7	-3.28	15.7	11.4	4.35
Mark Davis	26	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.12	4	-24	28	13.0	15.8	-2.80	14.1	11.5	2.66
Sam Mack	31	32	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.10	2	-22	24	13.6	15.7	-2.17	12.1	12.2	-0.16
Adonal Foyle	37	38	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-18	16	14.7	15.3	-0.67	14.3	11.0	3.36
Sam Jacobson	33	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.22	3	-23	26	15.6	14.9	0.76	12.3	12.1	0.18
Vonteego Cummings	57	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-19	18	15.0	15.3	-0.32	12.7	11.5	1.24
Erick Dampier	52	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-14	8	15.8	14.4	1.44	11.0	13.3	-2.31
Donyell Marshall	34	32	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.19	-15	-5	-10	15.9	14.7	1.22	12.7	11.9	0.74
John Starks	53	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.30	-19	-1	-18	14.9	15.3	-0.45	11.6	12.8	-1.18
Jason Caffey	60	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.24	-22	2	-24	15.7	14.4	1.31	10.9	13.7	-2.77
Mookie Blaylock	53	52	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.28	-24	4	-28	16.1	14.1	2.00	11.3	13.0	-1.67
Antawn Jamison	76	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.18	-22	2	-24	15.3	14.5	0.81	11.6	13.7	-2.09

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	70	72	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.17	19	1	18	11.8	12.9	-1.07	15.3	14.7	0.56
Darrell Armstrong	61	62	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.21	20	0	20	11.7	12.9	-1.19	14.7	15.6	-0.89
Bo Outlaw	58	60	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.36	25	-5	30	12.0	12.4	-0.46	15.0	15.3	-0.34
John Amaechi	59	58	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.38	25	-5	30	12.4	11.9	0.42	15.1	15.1	0.05
Ron Mercer	47	49	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.35	22	-2	24	11.5	12.7	-1.20	14.9	15.3	-0.32
Corey Maggette	58	57	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.27	-2	22	-24	12.7	11.5	1.20	15.3	14.9	0.32
Michael Doleac	46	48	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.29	-5	25	-30	11.9	12.4	-0.42	15.1	15.1	-0.05
Monty Williams	34	34	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	20	-20	11.1	12.7	-1.60	17.2	14.1	3.04
Chucky Atkins	44	44	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.12	0	20	-20	12.9	11.7	1.19	15.6	14.7	0.89
Pat Garrity	37	36	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.23	-4	24	-28	13.0	11.7	1.24	14.3	15.5	-1.27
Johnny Taylor	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	16.2	11.7	4.48	10.7	15.6	-4.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 70, IND 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.2%
SEA 116, DEN 168	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
WAS 83, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%