NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	110		Excitement	7.3 [352]		MVP	Chris Whitney (WAS): +9.5%
Washington Wizards	102		Comeback	1.6 [740]		LVP	Jahidi White (WAS): -16.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Coleman	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	14	57%	0.14	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.02
Anthony Mason	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	5	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Elden Campbell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	14	59%	0.07	1	-0.03	18	83%	0.03
Brad Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dale Ellis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Eddie Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	14	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
David Wesley	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	15	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.03
Baron Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.01	-0.03	7	72%	0.13	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	8	72%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.01	15	59%	0.09	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.05
Lorenzo Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.02,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.04	0.02	17	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	8	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	8	50%	-0.01	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	13	45%	-0.04	3	-0.09	7	71%	0.02
Jahidi White	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.5	31.6	15.7	26.2	1.4	37.5	136.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +22.7%

CHH +0.8%

WAS -7.4%

CHH +39.1%

WAS -5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	WAS	NBA	CHH	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.7	15.2	113.4	106.2	101.7
season	14.9	15.5		101.5	101.1
opponent	14.8	15.1		104.4	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	14.2	16.0	16.3	14.4	15.2
WAS	13.5	15.3	15.0	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wesley	88	87	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	3	2	15.2	14.7	0.57	14.5	16.2	-1.73
Elden Campbell	82	80	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.20	6	2	4	15.2	15.3	-0.10	14.5	15.2	-0.71
Dale Ellis	20	20	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.17	6	2	4	17.8	14.5	3.29	16.3	14.2	2.14
Anthony Mason	83	83	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	1	6	14.9	17.1	-2.29	14.2	17.6	-3.42
Brad Miller	27	28	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.23	3	5	-2	16.2	14.8	1.39	16.1	14.1	2.05
Baron Davis	23	23	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.23	3	5	-2	16.2	14.9	1.30	17.2	13.8	3.37
Eddie Jones	83	82	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	0	8	14.9	17.1	-2.29	14.1	17.9	-3.75
Derrick Coleman	70	68	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	4	0	14.4	17.3	-2.87	14.0	16.4	-2.40
Eddie Robinson	9	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	10	-12	15.8	15.1	0.65	17.0	14.4	2.59

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzo Williams	9	10	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-6	4	14.9	14.6	0.26	17.2	15.0	2.25
Jahidi White	25	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.02	-2	-6	4	14.5	14.7	-0.18	14.7	15.4	-0.67
Richard Hamilton	24	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-7	6	16.3	14.1	2.24	14.5	15.4	-0.90
Rod Strickland	65	66	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	-4	0	14.0	15.9	-1.89	15.1	15.5	-0.39
Chris Whitney	32	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-3	-2	15.7	14.1	1.59	14.7	15.4	-0.74
Ike Austin	53	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-2	-4	15.7	13.4	2.28	16.5	13.8	2.67
Tracy Murray	79	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.16	-6	-2	-4	13.8	18.6	-4.85	14.7	17.6	-2.91
Aaron Williams	41	41	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-6	4	15.0	14.4	0.64	14.6	15.6	-1.04
Mitch Richmond	72	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-1	-6	14.1	16.3	-2.24	15.4	14.5	0.90
Juwan Howard	80	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-3	-2	14.7	14.3	0.41	15.4	14.1	1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.45,0.45,0.09,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 95, SAS 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.02,0	93.3%
PHX 110, ORL 104	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.14,0.45,0.45,0.25,0.09,0	92.3%
DEN 89, SAS 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.26,0.28,0.15,0.04,0	92.3%