NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	7.2 [405]		MVP	Earl Boykins (DEN): +24.2%
San Antonio Spurs	85		Comeback	1.8 [388]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -20.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.12	-0.00	13	70%	0.24	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Francisco Elson	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	9	65%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	13	50%	0.15	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00
Earl Watson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	12	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.03	-0.02	19	38%	-0.00	2	-0.05	15	80%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	9	63%	0.07	1	-0.03	9	78%	-0.03
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	6	25%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	10	33%	-0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	11	43%	-0.03	3	-0.09	8	62%	-0.04
Brent Barry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	4	-0.17	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21	-0.21	-0.10	-0.15	-0.04	11	48%	0.07	6	-0.28	7	57%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.0	30.1	17.7	28.1	3.4	29.4	137.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.7%

DEN +4.2%

SAS -2.2%

DEN +19.6%

DEN +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	16.3	15.6	94.7	90.4	104.4
season	14.4	16.3		103.5	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		99.4	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	14.9	14.6	13.6	14.4
SAS	16.8	16.4	14.8	17.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	50	48	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	0	4	15.2	13.5	1.66	15.4	17.1	-1.71
Andre Miller	81	81	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.39	3	1	2	14.0	16.5	-2.50	16.8	12.6	4.22
Francisco Elson	72	73	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	1	2	14.6	13.5	1.09	15.8	18.0	-2.19
Greg Buckner	35	37	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.15	6	-2	8	15.7	13.6	2.17	15.3	16.9	-1.58
Eduardo Najera	48	50	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.23	2	2	0	15.2	13.5	1.73	16.3	16.2	0.14
Kenyon Martin	66	64	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.22	0	4	-4	13.6	16.2	-2.66	16.9	15.0	1.89
Carmelo Anthony	75	76	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	4	-4	13.8	16.7	-2.88	16.1	16.8	-0.65
Earl Watson	43	41	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	2	0	13.9	14.8	-0.92	17.0	15.7	1.36

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	33	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	0	-4	16.0	16.4	-0.35	14.0	14.6	-0.62
Brent Barry	59	57	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.09	-1	-3	2	15.5	17.6	-2.14	14.9	13.6	1.26
Nazr Mohammed	57	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.33	6	-10	16	16.3	16.2	0.11	15.2	13.1	2.14
Fabricio Oberto	21	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-2	0	15.9	16.4	-0.45	15.0	14.2	0.86
Tony Parker	73	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-4	4	16.8	14.3	2.54	14.2	14.9	-0.66
Bruce Bowen	63	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.31	-1	-3	2	15.9	17.0	-1.11	14.0	15.3	-1.34
Michael Finley	50	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.07	-10	6	-16	16.9	15.5	1.42	14.5	14.3	0.15
Nick Van Exel	38	37	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-1	-2	16.0	16.4	-0.47	14.4	14.4	-0.05
Tim Duncan	76	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.37	-5	1	-6	16.5	15.2	1.28	13.8	16.9	-3.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.26,0.28,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 110, WAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.45,0.45,0.09,0.01,0	92.3%
IND 94, GSW 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.52,0.32,0.47,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.29,0.15,0.17,0	92.1%
DEN 100, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.03,0.02,0	92.0%