NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	95		Excitement	7.2 [420]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +11.1%
San Antonio Spurs	86		Comeback	1.5 [462]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -11.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.10	0.01	15	52%	0.13	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.09	0.01	10	54%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09	0.08	-0.01	-0.01	16	58%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	3	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Richard Hamilton	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	19	53%	0.10	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	0.00	10	43%	0.02	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.04	-0.04	14	55%	0.08	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.12
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.01	6	67%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	10	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	15	48%	0.01	4	-0.11	1	0%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	17	50%	-0.00	3	-0.11	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.5	36.5	20.7	28.0	3.5	38.6	155.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +35.3%

DET +2.6%

SAS -3.3%

DET +19.2%

SAS -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	17.5	17.9	15.5	115.9	106.2	104.0
season	16.7	16.3		103.5	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		98.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.0	17.0	17.6	19.4	17.5
SAS	17.5	16.5	20.3	17.5	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	74	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-4	17	17.2	20.0	-2.81	17.8	18.3	-0.45
Ben Wallace	76	75	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-3	15	17.3	20.0	-2.74	18.0	16.8	1.13
Richard Hamilton	75	75	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.17	9	0	9	18.1	10.6	7.54	17.3	25.0	-7.69
Rasheed Wallace	41	40	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	1	7	17.7	17.2	0.54	17.4	18.3	-0.89
Chauncey Billups	68	65	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	2	5	17.5	17.4	0.04	18.1	17.0	1.09
Lindsey Hunter	26	26	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.16	-1	10	-11	17.3	17.5	-0.23	19.2	17.2	1.99
Antonio McDyess	47	47	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	11	-13	17.6	17.3	0.21	18.1	17.5	0.60
Carlos Arroyo	3	3	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	10	-11	9.3	17.8	-8.44	16.7	17.9	-1.26

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	2	2	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-10	11	21.5	17.8	3.72	8.5	17.7	-9.19
Tony Parker	62	66	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-8	7	18.6	15.4	3.21	17.4	17.6	-0.12
Tim Duncan	68	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-8	7	17.4	20.2	-2.80	18.0	14.6	3.37
Nazr Mohammed	44	42	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-4	-1	18.2	17.5	0.72	16.3	18.7	-2.41
Brent Barry	40	39	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-5	1	18.6	17.1	1.53	17.8	17.1	0.73
Bruce Bowen	70	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-2	-5	17.0	23.5	-6.45	17.9	14.9	2.95
Robert Horry	50	52	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.11	-12	3	-15	18.2	17.4	0.85	17.7	17.0	0.78
Manu Ginobili	69	68	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.15	-16	7	-23	17.5	19.8	-2.30	17.1	19.1	-2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 115, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.29,0.14,0,0	93.6%
CHH 110, WAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.45,0.45,0.09,0.01,0	93.3%
MIN 89, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.05,0	93.1%