NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	112		Excitement	4.0 [995]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +26.8%
Denver Nuggets	135		Comeback	1.0 [568]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -4.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.01	0.04	10	73%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Danny Manning	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	9	63%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.06	16	51%	0.05	3	-0.03	5	40%	-0.03
Ray Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	16	55%	0.02	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.03
Haywoode Workman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	40%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	16	57%	0.04	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	-0.06	12	32%	-0.05	1	0.00	4	75%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.22	0.05	-0.00	17	78%	0.27	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	-0.00	15	70%	0.09	3	-0.03	7	57%	-0.03
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	11	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	6	44%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	10	71%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.10	0.00	0.08	4	112%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	7	81%	0.03	4	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	33%	-0.00	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.7	27.1	15.5	21.2	1.8	27.2	117.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +50.0%

MIL -5.2%

DEN +5.4%

MIL -3.3%

DEN +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	14.9	15.2	115.5	139.2	101.7
season	14.9	14.8		105.5	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.4		103.7	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.5	17.4	14.0	13.5	14.8
DEN	13.2	16.1	17.3	13.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywoode Workman	10	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.20	-7	-16	9	14.5	14.8	-0.28	12.5	15.2	-2.70
Darvin Ham	34	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-22	21	15.7	14.2	1.51	14.1	15.4	-1.35
Danny Manning	42	42	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-22	21	15.6	14.1	1.49	16.3	13.9	2.46
Vinny Del Negro	48	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.12	-8	-15	7	15.8	13.7	2.10	15.4	14.5	0.95
Scott Williams	35	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	-11	-1	15.3	14.5	0.79	16.5	14.0	2.48
Tim Thomas	51	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.23	-19	-4	-15	14.9	14.6	0.23	14.1	15.9	-1.78
Glenn Robinson	64	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	-9	-5	14.1	16.1	-2.03	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Ray Allen	72	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.04	-15	-8	-7	14.4	15.8	-1.41	15.1	14.5	0.55
Ervin Johnson	57	55	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.08	-18	-5	-13	14.1	15.7	-1.70	14.6	15.4	-0.86
Sam Cassell	72	69	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.09	-20	-3	-17	14.3	16.0	-1.63	14.5	15.9	-1.39

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	68	68	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.14	22	1	21	15.0	14.9	0.06	15.4	13.1	2.30
James Posey	39	40	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.24	23	0	23	14.0	15.6	-1.53	15.1	14.5	0.55
Bryant Stith	70	70	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.30	25	-2	27	14.5	16.0	-1.47	14.5	15.4	-0.86
Antonio McDyess	74	76	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.14	19	4	15	14.6	16.0	-1.45	14.0	17.4	-3.35
Nick Van Exel	71	72	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.26	23	0	23	15.5	13.5	1.96	13.9	17.2	-3.30
Keon Clark	37	35	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	19	-15	14.9	14.9	-0.03	15.3	14.5	0.79
Cory Alexander	26	25	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	23	-23	13.5	15.5	-1.96	17.2	13.9	3.30
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	27	27	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.13	-2	25	-27	16.0	14.5	1.47	15.4	14.5	0.86
George McCloud	58	57	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.06	0	23	-23	15.6	14.0	1.53	14.5	15.1	-0.55
Chris Gatling	15	15	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	22	-21	16.6	14.6	1.97	14.1	14.9	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.89,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.84,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 75, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.7%
UTA 93, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.83,0.76,0.76,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1	95.6%
DET 64, NJN 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.6%