NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	82		Excitement	8.7 [149]		MVP	Chris Carr (CHI): +19.8%
Chicago Bulls	83		Comeback	7.1 [42]		LVP	Rik Smits (IND): -43.9%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.02	5	60%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	14	64%	0.14	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	2	67%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Sam Perkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.04,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.11	-0.00	11	54%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	9	35%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Mark Jackson	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,-0.04,-0.18	-0.01	-0.17	-0.00	9	54%	-0.16	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.05
Reggie Miller	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-0.01	14	21%	-0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rik Smits	-0.44	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.44	-0.12	-0.31	0.01	14	29%	-0.39	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.11	0.00	8	75%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Elton Brand	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.02	21	62%	0.13	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.06
Chris Anstey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dickey Simpkins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	2	25%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	11	57%	0.11	4	-0.21	8	87%	0.06
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	3	0%	-0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.05	-0.17	0.01	8	25%	-0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.27,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27,-0.33,-0.26,-0.26,-0.34,-0.43	-0.43	-0.24	-0.20	-0.01	18	32%	-0.32	4	-0.11	11	27%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	25.8	15.4	27.1	2.4	28.7	127.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +36.0%

CHI +21.8%

IND -6.8%

IND -2.8%

CHI +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	CHI	NBA	IND	CHI	NBA
this game	16.1	16.5	15.2	92.1	94.3	101.7
season	15.4	16.5		106.5	91.8
opponent	14.9	15.1		102.3	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.6	14.4	16.9	18.6	16.1
CHI	19.0	16.9	11.9	19.3	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	34	33	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.03	10	-11	21	14.8	16.9	-2.09	17.6	15.8	1.79
Austin Croshere	44	43	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.09	8	-9	17	15.5	16.6	-1.19	17.5	15.5	2.05
Travis Best	34	34	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.10	1	-2	3	16.2	16.0	0.19	18.1	15.5	2.61
Sam Perkins	44	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.48	8	-9	17	16.7	15.4	1.24	18.3	14.8	3.46
Dale Davis	64	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	4	-9	15.7	17.0	-1.31	15.7	18.4	-2.69
Rik Smits	36	38	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	3	-7	15.9	16.2	-0.23	15.2	17.4	-2.20
Reggie Miller	82	81	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.45	-5	4	-9	16.1	15.6	0.53	16.2	19.9	-3.66
Mark Jackson	55	54	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.57	-2	1	-3	16.0	16.2	-0.19	15.5	18.1	-2.61
Jalen Rose	52	52	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.41	-16	15	-31	17.4	14.2	3.15	15.8	17.5	-1.76

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Carr	45	44	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.46	10	-9	19	15.1	18.0	-2.91	17.1	15.0	2.05
Randy Brown	67	68	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.48	9	-8	17	16.0	18.1	-2.11	16.3	15.3	0.95
Toni Kukoc	71	73	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.50	6	-5	11	15.9	18.9	-2.97	16.1	15.7	0.45
Metta World Peace	75	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.46	6	-5	11	16.3	17.8	-1.50	16.3	14.5	1.87
Dickey Simpkins	35	36	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.46	-6	7	-13	17.7	15.7	1.94	14.9	16.8	-1.91
Elton Brand	76	77	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	4	-7	17.4	10.7	6.64	16.5	12.9	3.63
Chris Anstey	14	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	7	-13	16.9	16.4	0.52	14.0	16.4	-2.41
Matt Maloney	31	31	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.01	-6	7	-13	17.8	15.8	2.08	15.9	16.2	-0.28
Hersey Hawkins	26	27	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.06	-5	6	-11	16.4	16.5	-0.15	14.1	16.9	-2.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 84, GSW 86	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.46,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.42,1	92.3%
OKC 92, LAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.35,0.22,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.58,1	91.8%
PHI 101, MIN 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.34,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.74,1	91.5%