NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	90		Excitement	6.6 [494]		MVP	Calbert Cheaney (BOS): +28.0%
Boston Celtics	94		Comeback	89.9 [8]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -30.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.03	10	55%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	10	61%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Muggsy Bogues	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	5	46%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Alvin Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	10	59%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
John Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.00	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	62%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.31	-0.20	-0.14	-0.03	28	33%	-0.22	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.28	0.28	0.07	0.23	0.01	5	80%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,0.18	0.18	-0.04	0.23	0.01	22	59%	0.37	7	-0.18	7	86%	0.02
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	7	40%	-0.10	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	19	46%	-0.09	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.04	0.03	12	41%	-0.13	1	-0.03	8	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	27.3	15.5	31.5	2.3	37.5	138.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +31.8%

TOR -4.5%

BOS +19.0%

BOS +6.2%

TOR -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	BOS	NBA	TOR	BOS	NBA
this game	16.8	14.3	15.2	97.8	101.1	101.7
season	15.5	14.7		101.8	102.4
opponent	15.1	14.9		103.3	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.2	16.7	16.5	19.0	16.8
BOS	14.2	17.6	14.1	11.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alvin Williams	55	57	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.15	3	-7	10	16.7	17.0	-0.35	12.9	16.6	-3.67
John Thomas	3	4	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-6	8	6.0	17.2	-11.18	13.5	14.4	-0.87
Tracy McGrady	35	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.05	-2	-2	0	17.3	16.5	0.85	14.6	14.2	0.49
Kevin Willis	30	29	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.14	-7	3	-10	21.1	14.7	6.41	14.9	14.1	0.87
Doug Christie	65	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.54	4	-8	12	16.0	18.8	-2.83	14.1	15.0	-0.89
Charles Oakley	79	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-2	0	16.2	20.4	-4.16	14.5	13.6	0.90
Vince Carter	75	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-3	2	15.9	20.7	-4.77	14.4	14.0	0.40
Antonio Davis	66	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	1	-6	16.3	18.0	-1.71	14.7	13.3	1.41
Muggsy Bogues	52	52	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	-0.44	-12	8	-20	18.6	14.5	4.01	14.9	13.6	1.34

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	50	51	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-3	10	14.3	14.4	-0.16	18.2	15.0	3.19
Paul Pierce	83	81	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.33	7	-3	10	14.1	16.5	-2.43	17.1	14.8	2.27
Antoine Walker	87	85	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	-1	6	14.3	15.3	-1.07	16.7	18.1	-1.44
Kenny Anderson	66	64	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.53	-1	5	-6	14.7	13.5	1.15	15.1	20.8	-5.76
Calbert Cheaney	50	51	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.52	-1	5	-6	14.9	13.7	1.27	14.8	19.3	-4.47
Tony Battie	21	20	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.09	6	-2	8	11.8	15.1	-3.26	15.9	17.1	-1.17
Walter McCarty	38	38	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.11	5	-1	6	12.8	15.4	-2.52	19.4	15.0	4.39
Dana Barros	30	30	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.13	4	0	4	12.7	15.1	-2.41	19.5	15.5	3.98
Eric Williams	12	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	7	-10	20.7	13.4	7.27	17.9	16.6	1.27
Doug Overton	1	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	6	-8	3.0	14.5	-11.46	6.0	17.1	-11.06
Danny Fortson	27	26	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	11	-18	17.1	13.2	3.86	15.9	17.2	-1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.14,0.2,0.07,0.01,0.07,0.15,0.17,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 87, SAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.09,0.31,1	93.4%
PHI 101, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.36,0.45,0.27,1	91.9%
MEM 95, OKC 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.42,1	91.7%