NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	112		Excitement	8.5 [179]		MVP	Grant Hill (DET): +44.5%
Washington Wizards	107		Comeback	11.0 [134]		LVP	Juwan Howard (WAS): -35.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.44	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.49,0.44	0.21	0.25	0.01	20	76%	0.46	1	-0.02	11	73%	0.04
John Crotty	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	8	56%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.01	16	63%	0.07	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.01
Eric Montross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.03	10	70%	0.05	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.02
Loy Vaught	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Terry Mills	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	4	-0.12	2	0%	-0.04
Michael Curry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	75%	0.06	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.17	-0.04	-0.01	9	10%	-0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.04

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.05	0.01	7	78%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Rod Strickland	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.02	16	66%	0.13	5	-0.09	9	78%	0.02
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	12	61%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	69%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.05
Gerard King	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.03	0.00	4	62%	0.07	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	5	50%	-0.09	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.09
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.17	-0.20	-0.02	12	41%	-0.11	5	-0.24	8	87%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	29.2	14.6	28.0	1.7	42.6	141.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +31.6%

WAS -20.8%

WAS -3.5%

DET +38.8%

DET +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	12.6	14.9	15.2	107.7	101.9	101.7
season	14.1	15.5		104.2	101.1
opponent	14.8	15.3		104.4	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	10.9	12.3	13.7	13.6	12.6
WAS	19.6	10.6	15.1	15.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	70	70	0.69	-0.20	0.89	0.40	10	-5	15	12.7	12.5	0.20	13.8	17.1	-3.30
Jerry Stackhouse	92	92	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.40	8	-3	11	12.6	12.6	0.06	15.0	14.6	0.34
Grant Hill	80	83	0.42	0.07	0.34	0.30	4	1	3	12.3	13.7	-1.40	16.0	10.8	5.24
Lindsey Hunter	61	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.39	-3	8	-11	12.3	13.1	-0.82	16.5	12.6	3.95
Christian Laettner	55	55	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	6	-7	13.5	11.7	1.74	14.9	15.0	-0.09
John Crotty	41	40	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	-1	7	13.2	12.3	0.93	11.6	16.9	-5.31
Don Reid	22	22	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	-1	7	13.7	12.3	1.39	17.1	14.3	2.81
Michael Curry	49	48	0.06	0.43	-0.37	0.09	-1	6	-7	11.7	13.5	-1.74	11.5	17.8	-6.21
Loy Vaught	17	18	-0.01	0.50	-0.51	-0.10	3	2	1	9.8	13.2	-3.43	15.6	14.8	0.77
Eric Montross	10	11	-0.03	0.52	-0.55	-0.00	-1	6	-7	11.9	12.7	-0.81	14.5	15.0	-0.41
Terry Mills	33	35	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.03	-8	13	-21	12.9	12.5	0.36	17.2	13.8	3.47

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	43	40	0.27	-0.76	1.03	-0.05	11	-16	27	16.8	13.6	3.22	11.0	13.7	-2.70
Jahidi White	48	46	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.06	6	-11	17	16.9	13.2	3.73	12.9	12.4	0.50
Gerard King	4	3	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-6	7	1.7	15.4	-13.69	16.0	12.5	3.47
Reggie Jordan	12	13	-0.17	-0.32	0.15	0.00	-6	1	-7	10.2	15.5	-5.36	13.5	12.5	0.95
Rod Strickland	80	78	-0.24	-0.25	0.01	-0.33	3	-8	11	15.9	11.8	4.09	12.6	12.7	-0.03
Michael Smith	50	51	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	-0.35	0	-5	5	16.9	13.1	3.83	12.7	12.5	0.18
Ike Austin	38	39	-0.37	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	3	-11	14.1	15.4	-1.27	13.7	12.0	1.77
Tracy Murray	66	67	-0.41	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	3	-11	13.4	17.4	-3.97	13.2	11.7	1.49
Chris Whitney	32	35	-0.43	-0.06	-0.37	-0.11	-11	6	-17	11.8	16.3	-4.51	11.9	13.0	-1.04
Aaron Williams	59	57	-0.47	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	3	-11	13.1	17.2	-4.14	12.6	12.7	-0.08
Juwan Howard	93	91	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	0	-5	15.9	7.6	8.28	12.4	14.5	-2.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, GSW 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.81,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.04,0	91.9%
POR 102, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.74,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.47,0.61,0.62,0.36,0.47,0.04,0	91.7%
CLE 105, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.9,0.87,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.53,0.53,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.31,0.15,0	91.5%