NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	102		Excitement	7.1 [449]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MIA): +27.9%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	10.0 [103]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -15.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,-0.1,0.18,0.18	0.04	0.14	-0.01	14	51%	0.20	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.06
CJ McCollum	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.19	0.03	0.04	16	72%	0.20	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.05
Ed Davis	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.12	-0.01	6	73%	0.21	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Shabazz Napier	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.05	-0.02	7	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	5	83%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.07	-0.00	10	75%	0.12	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jake Layman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	41%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.24	0.07	0.02	11	104%	0.29	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	3	86%	0.18	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	7	62%	0.09	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	10	55%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	-0.01	11	45%	0.00	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.13	-0.02	18	40%	-0.13	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.14
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	12	37%	-0.09	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.0	26.1	15.4	27.6	2.5	35.4	133.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +9.5%

POR +36.2%

MIA -17.7%

POR +11.4%

POR +10.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	17.5	14.7	114.6	109.2	107.5
season	15.2	15.1		107.8	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.3		105.8	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.7	15.0	15.6	15.0	15.3
MIA	15.7	16.3	19.4	18.8	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	78	75	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.27	15	-8	23	15.1	16.6	-1.53	17.9	14.9	2.95
Ed Davis	50	48	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.42	9	-2	11	16.0	14.4	1.57	17.0	18.0	-0.98
Al-Farouq Aminu	70	66	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-4	15	15.1	16.1	-0.97	18.1	15.5	2.55
Shabazz Napier	44	42	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.33	11	-4	15	15.7	14.9	0.73	16.6	18.3	-1.67
Damian Lillard	68	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	5	-3	15.2	15.7	-0.49	17.6	17.1	0.48
Noah Vonleh	10	10	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.10	4	3	1	14.7	15.4	-0.67	19.6	17.2	2.42
Jake Layman	8	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.06	2	5	-3	14.1	15.4	-1.28	19.0	17.3	1.70
Pat Connaughton	20	21	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	12	-17	16.1	15.1	1.04	14.2	18.5	-4.31
Maurice Harkless	18	19	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.04	-7	14	-21	15.3	15.3	-0.02	14.7	18.2	-3.48
Evan Turner	41	42	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	10	-13	15.6	15.0	0.63	18.2	16.8	1.46
Zach Collins	38	38	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.07	-4	11	-15	14.6	15.8	-1.29	18.3	16.8	1.57

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	18	17	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.07	10	-17	27	14.3	18.3	-4.01	15.9	15.1	0.80
Kelly Olynyk	49	51	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-5	3	18.3	16.4	1.84	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Wayne Ellington	57	58	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-7	7	16.7	18.8	-2.10	15.8	14.4	1.39
Josh Richardson	66	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-5	3	17.6	17.1	0.48	15.2	15.7	-0.49
Goran Dragic	56	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.16	-10	3	-13	17.9	16.7	1.22	14.9	16.1	-1.20
James Johnson	67	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	-1	-5	17.5	17.4	0.08	15.4	14.8	0.63
Bam Adebayo	55	55	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.26	-10	3	-13	16.9	18.5	-1.60	15.1	15.5	-0.38
Dion Waiters	67	71	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.35	-15	8	-23	18.3	14.5	3.78	15.2	15.5	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.74,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.47,0.61,0.62,0.36,0.47,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, TOR 90	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.81,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.47,0.28,0.43,0.03,0	92.2%
CLE 105, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.9,0.87,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.53,0.53,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.31,0.15,0	92.1%
DET 112, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.15,0	91.7%