NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	110		Excitement	6.4 [539]		MVP	Loy Vaught (DET): +11.3%
Detroit Pistons	105		Comeback	1.4 [449]		LVP	Christian Laettner (DET): -19.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mitchell	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.06	-0.02	13	62%	0.16	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Terrell Brandon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	15	62%	0.11	2	-0.05	15	93%	0.06
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	7	61%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
William Avery	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0	100%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Malik Sealy	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	13	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	2	25%	-0.08	1	-0.01	4	0%	-0.09
Kevin Garnett	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	15	65%	0.15	9	-0.25	4	50%	-0.02
Joe Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	8	39%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Loy Vaught	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	4	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	42%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.07	0.07	24	62%	0.02	6	-0.18	17	82%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	12	42%	-0.15	2	-0.02	14	57%	-0.08
Christian Laettner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.07	-0.01	12	37%	-0.11	3	-0.09	6	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	28.6	16.6	28.1	1.6	48.3	148.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +28.8%

MIN +5.8%

MIN +20.6%

DET -9.6%

MIN +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DET	NBA	MIN	DET	NBA
this game	14.8	12.2	15.2	102.8	99.1	101.7
season	15.1	14.1		103.5	104.2
opponent	15.3	15.7		103.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.2	15.0	15.5	14.5	14.8
DET	13.5	13.8	11.6	10.3	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrell Brandon	93	93	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.38	13	-8	21	14.8	14.8	0.01	12.0	14.0	-2.01
Sam Mitchell	87	87	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-7	19	15.0	14.0	0.98	11.8	14.3	-2.53
Malik Sealy	75	77	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.30	11	-6	17	15.4	13.3	2.07	13.1	9.9	3.27
Kevin Garnett	91	90	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.23	12	-7	19	15.3	12.1	3.21	12.7	9.8	2.85
Rasho Nesterovic	37	40	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.02	14	-9	23	14.8	14.8	0.07	14.7	10.8	3.92
Joe Smith	54	51	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.24	-2	7	-9	14.2	15.4	-1.12	12.5	11.9	0.60
William Avery	8	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	7	-9	15.2	14.8	0.49	16.4	11.9	4.49
Anthony Peeler	51	47	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.26	-16	21	-37	14.2	15.3	-1.11	10.4	13.7	-3.25
Bobby Jackson	10	10	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.06	-5	10	-15	9.2	15.4	-6.17	8.3	12.6	-4.35
Tom Hammonds	29	28	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.10	-12	17	-29	14.9	14.7	0.19	10.0	13.1	-3.09

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loy Vaught	23	23	0.44	-0.94	1.37	-0.03	16	-21	37	12.0	12.3	-0.25	14.4	14.9	-0.46
John Crotty	38	37	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.04	9	-14	23	12.6	12.1	0.49	14.5	15.0	-0.51
Michael Curry	55	55	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.31	11	-16	27	11.5	13.1	-1.59	14.2	15.4	-1.15
Terry Mills	35	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	1	-7	14.5	11.1	3.36	15.1	14.6	0.52
Jerome Williams	74	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-6	7	11.5	14.0	-2.57	14.6	15.2	-0.60
Grant Hill	95	94	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.30	-6	1	-7	11.9	15.2	-3.29	14.9	13.9	0.99
Jerry Stackhouse	79	81	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.22	-14	9	-23	12.3	12.2	0.07	15.0	14.2	0.85
Lindsey Hunter	63	66	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.42	-10	5	-15	12.0	12.5	-0.46	14.7	15.0	-0.29
Christian Laettner	68	69	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.11	-26	21	-47	13.1	10.8	2.30	15.3	13.9	1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.29,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.07,0,0.01,0.02,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 108, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.17,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.04,0.02,0	92.6%
HOU 112, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.15,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	92.4%
NYK 101, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.3,0.38,0.21,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0	92.3%