NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	5.4 [732]		MVP	Quincy Lewis (UTA): +14.8%
Utah Jazz	109		Comeback	1.1 [992]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): -13.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	16	63%	0.10	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Roy Rogers	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.10	6	45%	0.04	1	0.00	8	12%	-0.02
Keon Clark	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	9	56%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	70%	0.14	5	-0.15	7	71%	0.01
George McCloud	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	10	59%	0.03	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Bryant Stith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ron Mercer	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	11	36%	-0.06	3	-0.06	6	33%	-0.03
Raef LaFrentz	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	5	8%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quincy Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.07	-0.01	10	64%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
John Stockton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	7	75%	0.13	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.03	12	71%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adam Keefe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Karl Malone	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	22	60%	0.10	4	-0.08	11	91%	0.04
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	6	64%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pete Chilcutt	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	9	44%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	9	26%	-0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	1.4	29.3	15.0	23.0	2.0	29.2	126.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +31.7%

DEN -0.5%

DEN -4.8%

UTA +21.2%

UTA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	15.0	15.3	15.2	93.7	114.7	101.7
season	14.8	16.3		101.5	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.0		100.6	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	15.7	12.5	16.1	15.0
UTA	14.7	15.0	16.3	15.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	39	39	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.13	-5	-15	10	14.7	15.2	-0.45	16.5	14.4	2.09
Roy Rogers	28	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-15	10	15.9	14.6	1.30	15.1	15.4	-0.23
James Posey	31	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	-12	4	13.8	15.6	-1.84	14.2	15.9	-1.69
George McCloud	55	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	-14	8	15.6	14.2	1.31	15.9	14.5	1.35
Bryant Stith	22	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	-11	2	15.4	14.9	0.52	14.9	15.4	-0.52
Chris Herren	24	23	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.01	-9	-11	2	16.4	14.5	1.83	16.2	15.0	1.20
Nick Van Exel	71	72	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.07	-11	-9	-2	14.5	16.4	-1.83	15.0	16.2	-1.20
Antonio McDyess	68	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	-8	-4	14.8	15.5	-0.66	15.6	14.6	1.00
Ron Mercer	76	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.00	-15	-5	-10	14.9	15.5	-0.58	15.4	14.9	0.58
Raef LaFrentz	61	60	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.02	-20	0	-20	15.1	14.9	0.25	14.3	17.0	-2.64

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	41	42	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.27	31	-11	42	13.7	16.6	-2.90	16.4	13.9	2.46
Quincy Lewis	46	47	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.08	14	6	8	15.9	14.7	1.18	15.1	14.9	0.19
Karl Malone	81	82	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.15	15	5	10	15.3	15.4	-0.06	15.0	15.2	-0.17
John Stockton	65	64	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.22	17	3	14	14.3	17.5	-3.21	14.6	15.9	-1.28
Adam Keefe	35	35	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	16	-12	16.1	14.8	1.24	14.3	15.4	-1.15
Jeff Hornacek	62	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	11	-2	15.0	15.8	-0.74	14.0	17.0	-3.05
Howard Eisley	28	30	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	17	-14	17.6	14.3	3.31	16.2	14.5	1.74
Bryon Russell	59	58	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.24	16	4	12	14.4	16.8	-2.37	15.3	14.5	0.77
Jacque Vaughn	23	23	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	19	-18	17.1	14.7	2.35	16.9	14.4	2.51
Pete Chilcutt	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	15.5	15.3	0.20	6.0	15.1	-9.11
Scott Padgett	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	15.5	15.3	0.20	6.0	15.1	-9.11
Greg Ostertag	31	30	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.11	-10	30	-40	16.6	14.7	1.94	14.3	15.3	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.59,0.49,0.52,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.9,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 101, DAL 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
MEM 95, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%
GSW 101, HOU 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.88,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.0%