NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	78		Excitement	5.0 [796]		MVP	Otis Thorpe (MIA): +8.9%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	2.7 [543]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -12.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	9	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	15	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Malik Sealy	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	13	52%	0.00	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	31%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.18	0.00	-0.06	23	33%	-0.07	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.02	7	86%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	7	71%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	7	36%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	21	56%	0.06	5	-0.11	12	83%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.03	-0.07	15	31%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	0.01	-0.00	13	31%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	24.4	15.3	21.6	2.5	29.5	119.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +45.0%

MIN -2.5%

MIA +17.7%

MIN -10.1%

MIN -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	15.2	82.1	93.7	101.7
season	15.1	15.7		103.5	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.2	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.4	16.2	15.5	13.6	14.9
MIA	13.9	14.4	16.5	17.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Hammonds	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-11	11	9.0	15.0	-5.98	20.0	15.4	4.65
Rasho Nesterovic	55	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-9	7	15.1	14.6	0.46	14.6	16.5	-1.90
Terrell Brandon	76	78	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-11	11	14.6	16.2	-1.55	15.4	15.2	0.20
Malik Sealy	67	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-7	3	15.2	14.2	1.05	15.4	15.3	0.16
Sam Mitchell	30	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	-4	-3	15.0	14.9	0.17	15.7	15.3	0.42
Wally Szczerbiak	59	59	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	-8	5	15.1	14.6	0.45	14.7	16.5	-1.77
Anthony Peeler	24	24	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-2	-7	14.5	15.1	-0.61	15.3	15.4	-0.14
William Avery	29	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-1	-9	14.9	14.9	0.02	16.4	15.0	1.41
Kevin Garnett	83	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.20	-6	-5	-1	14.8	15.7	-0.95	15.4	15.2	0.17
Joe Smith	51	51	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.07	-14	3	-17	15.0	14.8	0.22	16.1	14.5	1.59

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	68	68	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	0	11	15.4	15.5	-0.11	14.6	15.8	-1.20
Otis Thorpe	46	45	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	6	-1	16.0	14.8	1.16	14.8	15.0	-0.22
Alonzo Mourning	80	80	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	4	3	15.2	16.4	-1.19	14.5	17.3	-2.87
Mark Strickland	33	34	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.08	8	3	5	14.0	16.1	-2.15	15.6	14.6	1.00
Rex Walters	29	29	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	2	7	15.4	15.4	0.02	17.1	14.0	3.15
P.J. Brown	64	65	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	1	9	15.2	15.8	-0.60	15.6	13.5	2.02
Anthony Carter	66	66	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.17	2	9	-7	15.4	15.4	-0.02	14.0	17.1	-3.15
Voshon Lenard	62	61	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	8	-5	16.1	14.0	2.15	14.6	15.6	-1.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	27	27	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	11	-11	15.5	15.4	0.11	15.8	14.6	1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 98, LAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.83,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.5%
DEN 81, MIA 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.71,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
MIN 84, DEN 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.69,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.92,0.98,1,1,1	94.1%