NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	81		Excitement	5.4 [731]		MVP	Rafer Alston (MIA): +5.9%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	2.1 [745]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -16.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	6	62%	0.02	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	29%	-0.02	1	-0.01	1	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	12	45%	-0.04	1	-0.04	7	71%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	9	30%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	17	41%	-0.06	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	-0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.05	20	31%	-0.17	0	0.00	11	82%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.01	-0.06	11	45%	0.06	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	8	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	60%	0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	52%	0.03	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.02	13	58%	0.08	4	-0.08	10	60%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.03	0.05	24	56%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	1	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	29.3	15.5	34.2	2.0	27.3	134.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +66.1%

DEN -6.6%

DEN -11.6%

MIA +1.8%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	15.1	15.7	89.0	106.6	100.5
season	14.9	16.2		101.6	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.4	16.3	16.4	16.1	16.5
MIA	16.0	13.8	13.6	17.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	5	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-16	16	11.2	16.9	-5.66	17.7	14.9	2.75
Nene	60	58	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-14	12	17.2	15.3	1.86	14.6	15.9	-1.32
Andre Miller	61	61	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-16	16	16.8	16.1	0.67	14.7	15.9	-1.20
Marcus Camby	54	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-14	12	17.2	15.6	1.56	14.2	16.4	-2.18
Rodney White	13	13	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-11	6	16.0	16.6	-0.64	17.9	14.6	3.29
Carmelo Anthony	71	70	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.12	-2	-14	12	16.4	17.1	-0.77	14.7	16.4	-1.67
Ryan Bowen	7	8	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.08	-9	-7	-2	19.3	16.3	2.96	13.9	15.2	-1.34
Jon Barry	25	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	-7	-2	14.2	17.4	-3.18	16.0	14.7	1.23
Voshon Lenard	66	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	-9	2	17.4	14.2	3.18	14.7	16.0	-1.23
Michael Doleac	24	27	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.04	-13	-3	-10	15.2	17.0	-1.88	16.2	14.6	1.54
Earl Boykins	30	30	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	0	-16	16.1	16.8	-0.67	15.9	14.7	1.20
Chris Andersen	39	38	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.00	-15	-1	-14	16.2	16.8	-0.56	15.9	14.5	1.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	47	46	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.07	19	-3	22	13.9	16.4	-2.58	16.5	16.6	-0.19
Rafer Alston	44	45	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.06	17	-1	18	16.2	14.1	2.14	15.6	17.5	-1.92
Samaki Walker	21	22	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	4	8	16.0	14.8	1.23	15.9	16.8	-0.90
Caron Butler	46	46	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.09	9	7	2	14.7	15.5	-0.86	16.9	16.2	0.65
Lamar Odom	75	74	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	6	4	14.5	17.8	-3.29	16.7	15.7	1.04
Dwyane Wade	72	72	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	10	-4	14.6	17.0	-2.40	17.1	14.5	2.56
Eddie Jones	66	64	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.00	9	7	2	15.0	15.3	-0.25	16.9	15.7	1.26
Rasual Butler	42	43	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.06	7	9	-2	15.3	14.9	0.35	16.3	16.8	-0.47
John Wallace	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	16.3	15.1	1.28	9.0	16.8	-7.81
Brian Grant	39	40	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.07	-9	25	-34	17.2	13.5	3.69	16.7	16.5	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.71,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.84,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%
TOR 76, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.65,0.65,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
LAL 100, ATL 114	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.45,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.6%