NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	84		Excitement	5.4 [697]		MVP	Johnny Newman (DEN): +10.6%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	2.4 [174]		LVP	Sam Mitchell (MIN): -15.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug West	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	8	68%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Cherokee Parks	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.03	12	64%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Chris Carr	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	12	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Stanley Roberts	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	15	47%	0.02	4	-0.16	6	83%	0.01
Stephon Marbury	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	16	39%	-0.11	2	-0.03	9	67%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	5	0%	-0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	13	66%	0.11	0	0.00	21	86%	0.05
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Priest Lauderdale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	0.00	14	44%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	-0.02	14	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	9	43%	-0.03	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	11	43%	-0.04	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	24.2	15.6	28.1	2.4	40.6	136.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.0%

MIN -8.0%

DEN +7.2%

DEN +29.0%

MIN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	16.7	15.6	92.3	103.3	102.5
season	14.8	16.2		105.3	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.7		109.5	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.9	14.8	15.1	15.3	14.8
DEN	19.7	17.2	15.5	14.7	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug West	51	53	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.06	8	-19	27	14.0	15.8	-1.78	18.5	14.2	4.31
Cherokee Parks	38	37	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-12	13	15.9	14.0	1.92	18.0	15.8	2.19
Tom Gugliotta	60	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-10	9	14.9	14.7	0.19	17.8	14.4	3.41
Tom Hammonds	27	27	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-5	-1	14.1	15.1	-0.98	14.9	17.4	-2.51
Stanley Roberts	36	37	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-1	-9	14.2	15.2	-1.05	16.6	16.7	-0.16
Terry Porter	19	19	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.07	-10	-1	-9	17.6	14.1	3.51	13.4	17.5	-4.15
Sam Mitchell	38	36	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	-1	-9	15.6	14.3	1.29	14.7	17.9	-3.28
Kevin Garnett	74	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-4	-3	14.4	16.8	-2.41	16.7	16.3	0.47
Stephon Marbury	77	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.19	-7	-4	-3	14.3	17.4	-3.10	17.2	14.0	3.18
Chris Carr	35	35	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.04	-13	2	-15	15.5	14.4	1.11	14.5	18.0	-3.42

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	53	52	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.21	12	-1	13	14.7	19.4	-4.72	15.4	14.0	1.40
Johnny Newman	71	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	1	9	15.3	21.2	-5.87	14.8	14.8	-0.01
Dean Garrett	76	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	0	11	17.1	14.8	2.24	14.2	17.5	-3.35
Anthony Goldwire	40	42	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	2	7	16.4	16.8	-0.38	15.8	13.9	1.87
Bobby Jackson	73	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	1	9	15.9	19.6	-3.67	14.6	15.6	-1.05
Joe Wolf	35	35	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.06	7	4	3	18.9	15.3	3.54	14.5	15.0	-0.56
LaPhonso Ellis	63	59	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	12	-13	17.8	14.1	3.69	14.2	16.0	-1.85
Eric Washington	29	30	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	6	-1	19.6	15.3	4.32	15.2	14.6	0.59
Priest Lauderdale	20	21	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.06	-8	19	-27	16.6	16.7	-0.02	16.1	14.4	1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.69,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.92,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 84, ATL 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
PHI 85, BOS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
POR 84, SEA 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%