NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	106		Excitement	7.9 [263]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +31.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	108		Comeback	1.0 [1132]		LVP	Gary Trent (DAL): -33.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31	0.23	0.09	0.01	16	81%	0.31	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Michael Finley	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,0.05,0.15	0.02	0.14	0.01	22	52%	0.21	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.00	8	68%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Hubert Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rick Hughes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.08	0.01	11	41%	-0.10	4	-0.12	7	57%	-0.03
Gary Trent	-0.34	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.21	-0.14	-0.01	17	26%	-0.26	3	-0.07	4	0%	-0.10

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Harper	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.05	0.02	9	94%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	22	52%	0.17	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.10
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	8	58%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	8	39%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Travis Knight	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	1	100%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	26	56%	0.18	7	-0.20	10	70%	0.03
Glen Rice	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	10	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.8	28.2	16.3	18.7	2.4	40.4	130.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +3.3%

LAL +42.2%

LAL +9.0%

DAL -6.4%

LAL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	LAL	NBA	DAL	LAL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.2	15.2	108.2	108.0	101.7
season	14.8	15.3		104.2	105.6
opponent	15.1	14.8		98.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.6	13.3	17.0	13.7	14.9
LAL	12.7	15.5	13.0	15.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Hughes	1	2	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	0	-2	8.0	14.9	-6.95	10.5	14.3	-3.80
Shawn Bradley	18	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	0	-2	14.6	14.9	-0.39	15.7	13.9	1.83
Damon Jones	58	59	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.48	12	-14	26	14.0	16.2	-2.23	15.3	12.7	2.52
Sean Rooks	34	35	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.33	3	-5	8	13.6	15.6	-2.02	13.5	14.6	-1.09
Gary Trent	73	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	8	-18	15.4	13.2	2.20	13.8	15.5	-1.73
Dirk Nowitzki	76	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.43	5	-7	12	15.0	14.4	0.66	15.0	11.6	3.39
Cedric Ceballos	79	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-2	2	14.9	14.9	-0.02	13.9	15.3	-1.41
Hubert Davis	56	58	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	9	-20	15.5	14.0	1.54	13.1	15.7	-2.58
Michael Finley	95	97	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.44	-5	3	-8	15.1	7.7	7.44	14.2	13.3	0.91

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	88	85	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.41	9	-7	16	14.3	13.4	0.91	15.1	13.2	1.99
Glen Rice	61	60	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.20	13	-11	24	13.3	15.6	-2.33	15.6	13.7	1.99
Ron Harper	63	60	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-8	18	13.6	15.4	-1.80	15.9	13.3	2.64
Shaquille O'Neal	85	84	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.25	3	-1	4	13.5	18.2	-4.68	15.0	14.2	0.77
A.C. Green	37	36	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.08	12	-10	22	13.0	14.9	-1.94	16.6	13.9	2.65
Robert Horry	57	55	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.47	-9	11	-20	14.8	13.4	1.45	13.9	16.1	-2.25
Rick Fox	50	49	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.45	-13	15	-28	15.6	12.8	2.76	13.5	16.3	-2.82
Travis Knight	10	10	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	2	-2	19.8	13.6	6.20	15.6	14.8	0.80
Derek Fisher	34	36	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.24	-7	9	-16	15.9	13.4	2.47	13.9	15.5	-1.61
Brian Shaw	15	15	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	10	-18	12.7	14.5	-1.83	11.7	15.4	-3.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 113, OKC 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.66,0.7,0.59,0.48,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.84,0.75,0.76,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.86,0.71,0.91,0.84,1	93.8%
PHI 107, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.89,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.89,0.85,1	93.3%
CHI 71, NYK 78	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.76,0.83,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1	93.2%