NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	111		Excitement	9.5 [83]		MVP	Todd Day (PHX): +32.1%
Phoenix Suns	110		Comeback	5.0 [67]		LVP	Rex Chapman (PHX): -19.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedric Ceballos	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.26	0.12	0.14	-0.00	12	75%	0.28	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.07	0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	17	63%	0.14	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Damon Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.04	7	62%	0.05	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Sean Rooks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	12	50%	0.05	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.23,-0.11,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	25	57%	0.15	7	-0.19	8	87%	0.02
Hubert Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.32	0.32	0.05	0.26	-0.01	15	56%	0.34	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	5	80%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.07	-0.01	19	66%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	100%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Toby Bailey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	14	53%	0.03	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.09	0.05	21	59%	0.03	5	-0.17	9	67%	-0.03
Rex Chapman	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.14	-0.04	9	20%	-0.20	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	30.5	15.4	21.2	2.4	38.5	132.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +4.6%

DAL +8.0%

DAL +32.8%

DAL +0.9%

DAL +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	PHX	NBA	DAL	PHX	NBA
this game	15.4	14.2	15.2	113.3	113.4	101.7
season	14.8	14.8		104.2	101.4
opponent	15.3	14.8		96.8	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.6	13.8	15.3	15.8	15.4
PHX	12.7	14.5	14.1	15.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedric Ceballos	56	55	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.47	13	-12	25	14.9	16.0	-1.07	14.6	13.6	0.96
Michael Finley	98	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	15.4	0.0	15.37	14.2	0.0	14.16
Damon Jones	30	31	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	-6	13	13.7	16.1	-2.40	15.2	13.7	1.56
Dirk Nowitzki	88	86	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.51	-3	4	-7	15.7	12.2	3.53	14.0	15.6	-1.66
Hubert Davis	60	59	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.35	-3	4	-7	15.0	15.9	-0.86	14.1	14.3	-0.16
Sean Rooks	26	27	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.02	4	-3	7	14.6	15.7	-1.08	14.1	14.2	-0.13
Gary Trent	63	64	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.23	-6	7	-13	16.7	13.1	3.59	14.5	13.5	1.03
Shawn Bradley	44	42	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	4	-7	14.7	15.9	-1.12	13.7	14.5	-0.88

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rex Chapman	54	55	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.21	15	-16	31	14.2	14.1	0.13	16.7	13.7	2.98
Ben Davis	1	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-1	1	3.0	14.3	-11.28	19.0	15.3	3.67
Randy Livingston	13	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	2	-5	16.4	13.8	2.56	14.7	15.5	-0.70
Clifford Robinson	88	89	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.35	8	-9	17	14.0	16.2	-2.27	15.5	14.0	1.51
Oliver Miller	67	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.37	5	-6	11	14.3	13.9	0.34	15.4	15.4	0.02
Luc Longley	29	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	5	-11	14.3	14.1	0.21	15.2	15.4	-0.19
Toby Bailey	25	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	8	-17	14.5	14.0	0.48	14.2	15.8	-1.55
Jason Kidd	88	89	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-2	3	14.0	15.7	-1.66	15.5	13.7	1.87
Todd Day	57	56	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.50	-4	3	-7	14.0	14.4	-0.49	14.8	16.1	-1.32
Rodney Rogers	63	65	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.28	-12	11	-23	14.2	14.1	0.12	14.9	16.3	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.69,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.39,0.19,0.45,0.57,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 95, MIN 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.69,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.31,0.54,0.33,0.09,0	91.3%
SAC 103, LAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.45,0.45,0.16,0	91.1%
PHX 113, MIN 111	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.73,0.61,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.62,0.79,0.52,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.32,0.54,0.45,0.28,0	90.9%