NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	94		Excitement	6.9 [432]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +14.1%
San Antonio Spurs	91		Comeback	1.7 [278]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -26.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.01	16	60%	0.16	1	-0.02	13	77%	0.02
Glenn Robinson	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.05	0.01	16	66%	0.18	4	-0.12	6	83%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	14	47%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Danny Manning	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	-0.05	13	29%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	6	56%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	67%	0.11	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.04
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Steve Kerr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chucky Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	10	48%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.08	0.01	8	72%	0.05	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.2,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.00	10	44%	-0.08	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.16	-0.10	-0.00	22	35%	-0.20	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	27.5	16.4	29.4	2.3	31.5	133.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +30.8%

MIL +12.5%

SAS -3.1%

MIL +9.6%

MIL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.7	15.3	15.2	104.4	101.1	101.7
season	14.9	15.5		105.5	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.4		95.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.8	17.6	15.2	17.2	16.7
SAS	13.9	16.7	16.1	14.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	73	73	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.39	5	-2	7	16.8	16.1	0.75	15.1	16.5	-1.47
Glenn Robinson	72	72	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.38	4	-1	5	16.0	19.4	-3.40	14.7	17.8	-3.06
Scott Williams	68	71	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	-3	9	16.6	16.7	-0.08	14.9	17.1	-2.18
Sam Cassell	75	73	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.32	1	2	-1	15.5	22.7	-7.20	14.9	17.2	-2.34
Tim Thomas	38	36	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.29	1	2	-1	17.7	15.9	1.72	17.2	14.1	3.19
Ervin Johnson	59	57	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.26	2	1	1	15.6	18.6	-2.97	14.3	17.1	-2.82
Vinny Del Negro	32	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	3	-3	19.2	15.3	3.86	16.9	14.4	2.49
J.R. Reid	22	23	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	4	-5	18.3	16.1	2.13	17.8	14.5	3.35
Danny Manning	11	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	6	-9	20.1	16.2	3.90	16.2	15.2	0.97

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samaki Walker	8	7	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.02	2	-5	7	13.9	15.5	-1.60	18.6	16.5	2.07
Steve Kerr	0	1	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-3	3	0.0	15.3	-15.33	0.0	16.9	-16.85
Chucky Brown	18	19	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	1	-5	16.2	15.1	1.04	17.7	16.4	1.29
Mario Elie	61	64	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.38	6	-9	15	14.1	18.0	-3.88	17.0	15.8	1.15
Antonio Daniels	34	33	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-4	5	17.1	14.2	2.91	18.7	15.5	3.25
Jerome Kersey	31	28	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	2	-7	18.0	13.9	4.12	17.9	16.1	1.83
Malik Rose	31	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.22	0	-3	3	17.3	14.3	2.94	18.4	15.8	2.65
David Robinson	59	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-3	3	14.3	17.3	-2.94	16.3	17.3	-1.00
Jaren Jackson	58	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-1	-1	15.4	15.2	0.23	15.2	19.0	-3.75
Avery Johnson	68	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	2	-7	14.0	19.4	-5.33	16.0	19.0	-2.98
Tim Duncan	82	82	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.37	-8	5	-13	15.5	13.9	1.60	16.1	22.5	-6.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 108, TOR 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0	94.3%
WAS 88, UTA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.03,0.01,0	93.8%
MIA 93, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.09,0	93.7%