NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	89		Excitement	6.0 [608]		MVP	Aaron Williams (WAS): +11.6%
Houston Rockets	105		Comeback	1.4 [639]		LVP	Juwan Howard (WAS): -17.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Williams	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.05	-0.03	6	64%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Michael Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gerard King	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Laron Profit	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tracy Murray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.01	0.02	16	55%	0.03	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Jahidi White	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	55%	-0.01	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	10	37%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Chris Whitney	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	8	32%	-0.16	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Juwan Howard	-0.18	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.06	0.01	16	44%	-0.06	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bullard	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.02	11	73%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.06	0.08	-0.02	18	40%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	8	55%	0.02	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.04	8	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	10	62%	0.05	2	-0.06	12	92%	0.04
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	67%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	0.04	14	57%	0.00	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.03
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.03	0.02	6	39%	-0.10	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.7	30.2	16.7	26.0	2.7	34.2	138.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +18.1%

HOU +13.0%

HOU +15.8%

HOU +1.4%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	HOU	NBA	WAS	HOU	NBA
this game	13.8	16.6	15.2	93.7	111.7	101.7
season	15.5	15.4		101.1	102.4
opponent	14.6	14.8		103.5	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.3	14.8	14.5	12.5	13.8
HOU	16.0	14.5	16.1	20.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy Murray	27	27	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-18	20	15.2	13.3	1.93	17.1	16.5	0.65
Laron Profit	4	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-15	14	9.2	14.0	-4.79	24.7	16.4	8.28
Gerard King	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-14	12	9.5	14.2	-4.74	23.2	16.0	7.22
Chris Whitney	35	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-14	12	14.1	13.7	0.34	16.9	16.5	0.39
Ike Austin	34	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-11	6	15.7	12.8	2.90	14.3	18.0	-3.64
Mitch Richmond	65	65	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	-7	-2	13.6	14.5	-0.91	16.7	16.6	0.14
Aaron Williams	47	46	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	-6	-4	13.8	13.9	-0.15	17.2	16.1	1.16
Michael Smith	66	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	-8	0	13.7	14.3	-0.62	15.7	18.7	-2.95
Jahidi White	34	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-11	6	13.4	14.1	-0.62	17.8	16.0	1.75
Reggie Jordan	26	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-10	4	15.3	13.3	1.96	15.6	17.0	-1.43
Juwan Howard	67	65	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.06	-18	2	-20	13.4	14.9	-1.54	16.3	17.4	-1.06
Rod Strickland	62	61	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.03	-16	0	-16	13.6	14.2	-0.61	17.0	16.0	0.95

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	79	79	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.01	20	-4	24	16.1	19.3	-3.19	13.9	13.4	0.56
Kelvin Cato	76	77	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.01	19	-3	22	16.7	16.3	0.39	14.0	13.1	0.90
Cuttino Mobley	65	65	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.01	18	-2	20	15.9	18.3	-2.35	14.6	12.3	2.30
Matt Bullard	68	67	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	5	6	16.4	17.3	-0.86	13.1	15.5	-2.40
Kenny Thomas	50	49	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.03	11	5	6	15.8	17.6	-1.73	13.8	13.9	-0.10
Bryce Drew	29	31	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	9	-2	17.6	16.2	1.36	14.9	13.3	1.62
Carlos Rogers	53	55	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	14	-12	17.2	15.9	1.28	13.9	13.8	0.03
Thomas Hamilton	9	9	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	16	-16	17.2	16.6	0.63	12.6	14.0	-1.42
Devin Gray	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	14	-12	24.7	16.4	8.28	9.0	14.0	-5.00
Walt Williams	1	2	-0.04	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	18	-20	15.0	16.7	-1.67	11.5	13.9	-2.39
Shandon Anderson	37	38	-0.15	0.66	-0.81	0.08	-8	24	-32	18.1	15.7	2.41	13.3	14.2	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.67,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 85, NOH 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	94.2%
CHI 89, TOR 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
MEM 95, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%