NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	6.3 [553]		MVP	Chucky Atkins (ORL): +10.1%
Orlando Magic	112		Comeback	4.8 [166]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -16.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Muggsy Bogues	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	8	53%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Michael Stewart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	63%	0.01	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Antonio Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	12	60%	0.03	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Dell Curry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.05	21	43%	0.00	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Charles Oakley	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Vince Carter	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	22	43%	-0.12	3	-0.05	9	67%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.07	-0.02	12	59%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	10	68%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	10	57%	0.02	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	58%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	9	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	5	37%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Michael Doleac	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	7	19%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.01	-0.01	13	48%	0.06	6	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	35%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.6	34.0	15.3	25.6	1.4	31.5	133.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +27.3%

ORL +1.5%

ORL +16.3%

ORL +3.4%

ORL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	12.4	15.2	95.1	108.7	101.7
season	15.5	13.6		101.8	100.4
opponent	15.4	14.9		99.3	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	14.6	15.9	16.7	15.5
ORL	13.2	12.5	9.8	14.6	12.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Stewart	11	12	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.02	5	-19	24	11.9	16.0	-4.07	12.7	12.4	0.28
Muggsy Bogues	51	52	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.07	-1	-13	12	15.0	16.1	-1.08	12.6	12.3	0.28
Tracy McGrady	80	80	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.10	3	-17	20	15.4	16.1	-0.70	12.4	12.3	0.15
John Thomas	15	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-16	18	11.9	16.2	-4.23	14.8	12.1	2.78
Alvin Williams	31	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-10	6	14.4	16.0	-1.65	11.1	13.0	-1.88
Dell Curry	44	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.04	-8	-6	-2	15.2	15.8	-0.51	12.6	12.3	0.38
Charles Oakley	49	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-2	-10	16.5	14.7	1.77	12.1	12.7	-0.66
Kevin Willis	37	37	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	-6	-2	15.1	15.8	-0.76	11.6	12.8	-1.20
Dee Brown	49	46	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.05	-11	-3	-8	17.1	14.1	2.97	13.6	11.5	2.07
Antonio Davis	72	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.07	-21	7	-28	16.6	13.1	3.55	12.1	13.3	-1.25
Vince Carter	76	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.18	-15	1	-16	15.6	15.4	0.13	12.5	12.2	0.31

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	49	49	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.17	11	3	8	13.0	11.9	1.07	15.3	15.7	-0.41
Chucky Atkins	38	38	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.14	12	2	10	12.7	12.3	0.38	15.3	15.7	-0.36
John Amaechi	55	55	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.01	15	-1	16	13.7	11.0	2.65	15.9	15.1	0.86
Pat Garrity	28	29	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.10	10	4	6	14.6	11.6	3.01	16.4	15.2	1.16
Corey Maggette	49	49	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	9	-4	13.1	11.8	1.38	15.3	15.8	-0.53
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	49	48	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.05	7	7	0	11.2	13.5	-2.28	15.7	15.4	0.35
Chris Gatling	31	31	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	11	-8	11.6	12.8	-1.20	15.8	15.4	0.33
Darrell Armstrong	67	66	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	10	-6	12.0	13.2	-1.28	15.4	15.7	-0.29
Monty Williams	61	61	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.09	5	9	-4	12.0	13.0	-1.02	15.5	15.5	-0.01
Ben Wallace	57	56	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	13	-12	12.4	12.5	-0.15	15.6	15.5	0.14
Michael Doleac	23	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	17	-20	10.6	12.9	-2.33	13.6	16.1	-2.50
Anthony Parker	8	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.06	0	14	-14	10.4	12.6	-2.21	17.8	15.3	2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.92,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 84, SEA 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.2,0.21,0.34,0.27,0.35,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.71,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
MEM 84, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.21,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%
NYK 78, GSW 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.88,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.4%