NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	6.5 [509]		MVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): +9.8%
Golden State Warriors	102		Comeback	1.9 [204]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -19.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.00	11	67%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.02	13	64%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	54%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rex Walters	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	20	52%	-0.10	1	-0.02	10	40%	-0.21
Jamal Mashburn	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	14	54%	-0.02	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.16	-0.03	-0.01	4	36%	-0.06	5	-0.13	6	83%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.03	18	55%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Mills	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.02	18	55%	0.06	1	-0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	14	47%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Terry Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	58%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Bill Curley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Farmer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.03	7	28%	-0.05	3	-0.10	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	27.1	13.6	24.4	2.7	46.0	139.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +3.5%

GSW +6.5%

GSW +16.6%

GSW +20.2%

GSW +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	14.6	15.9	15.2	103.2	107.4	101.7
season	15.7	14.7		101.2	97.2
opponent	14.7	15.9		105.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.5	15.3	17.9	12.9	14.6
GSW	16.8	16.8	14.8	15.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rex Walters	17	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-5	5	15.6	14.3	1.34	16.9	15.7	1.15
Clar. Weatherspoon	32	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.24	7	-12	19	13.1	15.3	-2.26	15.3	16.2	-0.94
Voshon Lenard	54	54	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.23	2	-7	9	15.0	14.0	1.01	14.7	17.5	-2.77
Otis Thorpe	27	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	1	-7	15.3	14.3	1.04	14.6	16.5	-1.91
P.J. Brown	62	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-4	3	14.5	14.6	-0.01	17.6	13.1	4.53
Jamal Mashburn	68	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	14.3	15.2	-0.94	16.1	15.5	0.54
Alonzo Mourning	64	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.15	-10	5	-15	15.3	12.9	2.48	16.2	15.3	0.88
Dan Majerle	70	71	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	2	-9	14.2	15.5	-1.33	15.7	16.5	-0.73
Anthony Carter	76	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.30	-7	2	-9	14.2	15.8	-1.58	15.8	16.4	-0.53

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Starks	77	76	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.28	10	-5	15	16.3	14.4	1.82	14.7	14.1	0.62
Terry Cummings	48	46	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.26	9	-4	13	15.3	16.6	-1.30	15.2	13.9	1.26
Chris Mills	83	83	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.32	6	-1	7	16.1	14.5	1.62	14.7	13.6	1.04
Mookie Blaylock	76	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	-7	19	15.4	17.8	-2.41	14.4	15.1	-0.62
Jason Caffey	71	70	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	-2	9	15.5	17.2	-1.73	14.4	15.0	-0.54
Tony Farmer	26	25	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	7	-9	15.3	16.2	-0.89	14.3	14.7	-0.37
Adonal Foyle	44	44	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	7	-9	16.6	15.3	1.26	13.8	15.2	-1.34
Vonteego Cummings	37	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.34	-12	17	-29	16.2	15.7	0.45	14.6	14.6	0.00
Bill Curley	13	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	8	-11	18.4	15.5	2.86	15.1	14.4	0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.84,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 92, VAN 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.73,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.79,0.88,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.87,1	94.5%
UTA 89, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
WAS 80, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.77,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%