NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	5.8 [638]		MVP	Anthony Mason (CHH): +9.7%
Charlotte Hornets	106		Comeback	1.0 [1091]		LVP	Eddie Jones (CHH): -17.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.05	0.05	-0.04	25	40%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	10	52%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Roy Rogers	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	10	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	16	54%	0.00	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	9	64%	0.05	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.01
George McCloud	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	12	46%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	13	38%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Mason	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.01	-0.03	12	72%	0.13	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	6	85%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	68%	0.09	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.03
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	11	54%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	12	54%	0.08	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00
Eddie Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	14	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.05	-0.02	10	48%	-0.05	6	-0.13	7	86%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	23.4	15.8	24.7	1.8	30.6	124.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +26.9%

CHH +15.1%

CHH +9.0%

DEN -4.8%

CHH +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHH	NBA	DEN	CHH	NBA
this game	14.6	14.6	15.2	101.0	107.1	101.7
season	14.8	14.9		101.5	101.5
opponent	15.1	15.0		99.2	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	13.6	16.2	13.0	14.6
CHH	12.2	15.2	18.8	13.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	52	53	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.33	13	-20	33	13.8	15.6	-1.82	15.3	13.8	1.44
Bryant Stith	7	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	-1	-5	19.4	14.3	5.18	7.9	15.1	-7.27
Keon Clark	43	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-8	9	14.7	14.6	0.09	15.0	14.4	0.57
Roy Rogers	26	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	2	-11	15.8	14.2	1.61	10.7	15.9	-5.21
Chauncey Billups	67	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.18	-1	-6	5	15.3	13.2	2.04	15.6	12.5	3.15
Antonio McDyess	79	81	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.38	3	-10	13	14.3	15.8	-1.51	15.2	12.1	3.06
Ryan Bowen	26	24	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-2	-3	13.9	14.9	-0.95	14.9	14.5	0.40
Raef LaFrentz	48	52	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	2	-11	14.4	14.8	-0.40	15.3	13.9	1.46
George McCloud	65	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	3	-13	14.4	15.0	-0.61	14.2	15.4	-1.17
Nick Van Exel	77	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.11	-12	5	-17	14.6	14.7	-0.06	14.2	16.4	-2.30

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	67	68	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.06	19	-12	31	14.0	15.8	-1.77	15.9	11.7	4.21
Eddie Jones	62	63	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-9	25	13.2	17.1	-3.89	14.7	14.6	0.08
Eddie Robinson	63	63	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.06	16	-9	25	13.9	15.8	-1.91	14.9	14.1	0.83
Anthony Mason	90	90	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	1	5	14.2	19.0	-4.82	14.6	15.4	-0.82
Baron Davis	49	47	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.45	-6	13	-19	15.3	14.0	1.33	13.6	15.6	-1.97
David Wesley	85	83	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	3	1	14.2	16.9	-2.69	14.8	13.7	1.13
Todd Fuller	32	30	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.30	-8	15	-23	17.3	13.3	4.03	13.6	15.1	-1.52
Ricky Davis	47	46	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.23	-12	19	-31	17.3	12.2	5.02	13.8	15.3	-1.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.83,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.73,0.89,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 82, LAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.73,0.62,0.67,0.8,0.89,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.0%
MEM 95, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%
DAL 99, TOR 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.96,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.95,1	92.5%