NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	116		Excitement	7.1 [406]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): +23.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	112		Comeback	12.4 [39]		LVP	Danny Manning (MIL): -19.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.23	0.11	0.12	-0.01	15	68%	0.25	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.08
Jerome Williams	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	5	83%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Terry Mills	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.08	0.01	8	75%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	0.01	21	60%	0.18	4	-0.10	10	90%	0.06
John Crotty	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	60%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Jud Buechler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.05	0.03	-0.07	0.01	10	62%	-0.01	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.14,0.19	0.19	0.16	0.04	0.01	24	62%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	-0.00	12	68%	0.17	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.00	3	62%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	53%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.08	-0.02	19	51%	0.05	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	14	53%	-0.04	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	9	25%	-0.15	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	26.5	15.4	24.4	1.8	37.2	133.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +30.4%

MIL -22.7%

DET +12.1%

MIL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.5	15.2	122.1	115.5	101.7
season	14.1	14.9		104.2	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.3		105.1	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.0	14.8	13.1	16.2	14.5
MIL	13.7	15.2	16.9	16.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	57	58	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.36	14	-10	24	14.3	14.7	-0.42	16.6	13.9	2.60
John Crotty	13	15	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.24	10	-6	16	15.2	14.4	0.78	17.7	15.1	2.56
Terry Mills	57	59	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.20	10	-6	16	14.7	14.1	0.59	15.4	15.6	-0.16
Grant Hill	85	88	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.37	2	2	0	14.9	11.1	3.78	15.0	20.7	-5.69
Michael Curry	42	43	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	-1	6	14.5	14.4	0.11	16.7	14.6	2.10
Lindsey Hunter	72	72	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	7	-10	14.3	15.0	-0.74	15.2	16.4	-1.26
Jerry Stackhouse	75	75	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	10	-16	14.6	13.9	0.74	15.2	16.5	-1.29
Christian Laettner	55	56	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.18	-7	11	-18	13.6	15.6	-2.01	14.8	16.4	-1.58
Jud Buechler	19	19	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	9	-14	14.4	14.5	-0.08	14.9	15.6	-0.69

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	60	61	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.13	12	-16	28	14.8	16.6	-1.72	14.7	14.1	0.57
Glenn Robinson	71	72	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.33	14	-18	32	14.7	17.7	-3.04	15.1	12.7	2.42
Ray Allen	85	83	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.29	8	-12	20	15.2	17.3	-2.09	14.6	13.4	1.22
Ervin Johnson	46	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-3	2	15.1	15.8	-0.71	14.5	14.5	-0.05
J.R. Reid	28	27	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	8	-20	16.8	15.0	1.80	13.1	15.0	-1.92
Sam Cassell	75	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-2	0	15.0	17.1	-2.05	14.8	13.5	1.23
Vinny Del Negro	34	33	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.09	-14	10	-24	17.2	14.6	2.57	13.5	15.0	-1.53
Tim Thomas	47	44	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.37	-5	1	-6	15.6	15.5	0.09	15.1	14.0	1.09
Danny Manning	39	35	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.10	-20	16	-36	17.5	14.2	3.27	13.3	15.2	-1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.82,0.72,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.77,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.53,0.28,0.23,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 112, NYK 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.73,0.8,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.81,0.85,0.74,0.7,0.53,0.53,0.32,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0	91.5%
SAS 109, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.81,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.71,0.79,0.7,0.52,0.47,0.29,0.15,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	91.3%
MIL 95, OKC 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.83,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.28,0.19,0.1,0.03,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0	91.0%