NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	5.2 [769]		MVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): +10.5%
Los Angeles Clippers	91		Comeback	1.8 [737]		LVP	Maurice Taylor (LAC): -25.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Carter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	13	71%	0.13	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rex Walters	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	80%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	19	53%	0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	11	45%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	18	58%	0.04	5	-0.14	7	71%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	8	79%	0.11	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Closs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	7	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	7	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	7	21%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	20	38%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	19	48%	0.00	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25	-0.25	-0.16	-0.05	0.04	18	46%	-0.05	8	-0.20	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.0	25.0	15.8	24.2	2.3	28.6	121.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.7%

MIA +2.3%

LAC -10.3%

MIA +7.4%

MIA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	12.7	16.4	15.2	100.0	91.9	101.7
season	15.7	15.6		101.2	95.5
opponent	14.3	15.9		107.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	11.8	15.7	11.7	12.0	12.7
LAC	15.4	17.7	17.6	15.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	75	74	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.20	13	-5	18	12.9	11.9	1.05	16.2	17.2	-1.04
Dan Majerle	70	69	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.26	8	0	8	12.3	13.5	-1.15	16.6	15.9	0.70
Rex Walters	37	36	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	-2	12	13.9	11.9	1.96	16.1	16.6	-0.45
Alonzo Mourning	82	82	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	8	-8	11.8	16.8	-4.95	16.9	14.4	2.50
Jamal Mashburn	75	76	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	7	-6	12.4	13.5	-1.15	16.5	16.3	0.16
Mark Strickland	29	28	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.05	5	3	2	14.1	12.1	1.98	16.2	16.5	-0.34
Anthony Carter	62	63	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.23	-2	10	-12	11.9	13.9	-1.96	16.6	16.1	0.45
Clar. Weatherspoon	29	30	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.09	5	3	2	14.2	12.0	2.18	16.4	16.4	-0.03
Voshon Lenard	36	37	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	8	-8	12.9	12.5	0.44	15.7	16.8	-1.11

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Closs	22	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-7	6	14.6	16.9	-2.30	12.0	12.9	-0.92
Eric Piatkowski	45	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-7	6	17.9	15.2	2.73	11.8	13.4	-1.59
Derek Anderson	78	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-9	10	16.5	16.0	0.48	12.3	14.1	-1.81
Brian Skinner	56	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	-8	0	-8	15.8	17.3	-1.47	12.9	12.3	0.56
Maurice Taylor	75	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-6	4	16.8	15.4	1.39	13.0	11.7	1.27
Troy Hudson	31	31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	0	-8	15.6	16.8	-1.13	13.7	12.2	1.52
Michael Olowokandi	45	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	17.5	15.5	2.03	12.2	13.1	-0.88
Tyrone Nesby	48	48	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	2	-12	16.4	16.5	-0.10	13.6	11.8	1.86
Lamar Odom	95	95	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-2	-4	15.9	28.5	-12.58	12.6	15.0	-2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.18,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 99, LAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.3%
WAS 95, NYK 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.1,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
GSW 89, PHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.18,0.29,0.26,0.13,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.02,0,0.01,0	94.7%