NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	8.3 [211]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +33.2%
Toronto Raptors	98		Comeback	6.1 [128]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -22.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	71%	0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	20	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	36%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.10	0.00	11	58%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Terry Porter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	6	31%	-0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	31%	-0.09	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
David Robinson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.00	9	32%	-0.10	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,-0.16,-0.22	0.03	-0.24	0.01	21	59%	0.03	3	-0.25	4	75%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.33	0.33	0.18	0.17	0.01	25	67%	0.39	1	-0.06	8	100%	0.06
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.06	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.05	-0.00	14	48%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Dee Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.04	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	7	57%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	5	20%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	6	17%	-0.10	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	30.2	17.7	23.7	2.0	36.2	135.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +44.3%

TOR +9.4%

SAS -6.6%

TOR +4.9%

SAS -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.5	15.0	15.2	96.8	104.3	101.7
season	15.5	15.5		101.6	101.8
opponent	14.9	15.4		102.1	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	16.6	15.3	14.1	15.5
TOR	14.4	15.4	17.4	13.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	37	37	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.17	7	-13	20	14.7	16.0	-1.31	14.9	15.0	-0.17
Jaren Jackson	42	42	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.09	1	-7	8	15.2	15.8	-0.56	14.7	15.2	-0.50
Terry Porter	55	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-6	6	14.9	16.3	-1.42	14.9	15.1	-0.23
Mario Elie	72	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.29	-2	-4	2	14.8	17.6	-2.72	15.3	13.7	1.61
Chucky Brown	54	51	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	4	-14	16.7	14.0	2.73	14.7	15.3	-0.57
Tim Duncan	73	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-2	-2	15.3	16.2	-0.88	15.3	14.0	1.26
Avery Johnson	62	62	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.41	-7	1	-8	16.0	14.6	1.38	15.0	14.8	0.19
David Robinson	77	76	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.53	-12	6	-18	16.1	12.8	3.37	14.7	16.2	-1.55

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dee Brown	42	42	1.11	-0.61	1.72	0.52	20	-14	34	13.2	16.4	-3.17	16.1	15.0	1.14
Vince Carter	72	71	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.43	12	-6	18	14.8	15.6	-0.81	15.9	14.3	1.57
Antonio Davis	65	65	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.39	11	-5	16	14.2	16.8	-2.59	16.0	14.4	1.62
John Thomas	14	14	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-4	14	13.2	15.3	-2.06	17.4	15.2	2.26
Charles Oakley	63	64	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.19	5	1	4	14.4	16.1	-1.73	14.8	16.9	-2.08
Doug Christie	46	46	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	1	4	15.2	14.7	0.53	15.3	15.7	-0.39
Tracy McGrady	56	58	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.27	-7	13	-20	15.8	13.8	1.98	15.6	15.4	0.25
Michael Stewart	7	8	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.09	-5	11	-16	19.0	14.6	4.36	12.9	15.7	-2.87
Dell Curry	32	32	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.13	-4	10	-14	15.5	14.7	0.81	14.9	15.8	-0.90
Kevin Willis	39	39	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.09	-9	15	-24	17.1	13.4	3.69	15.6	15.4	0.19
Muggsy Bogues	34	36	-0.46	0.96	-1.41	-0.22	-8	14	-22	15.4	14.7	0.60	14.6	16.1	-1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.52,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.33,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.55,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.73,1	92.6%
NYK 105, IND 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.63,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.54,0.77,0.96,1	90.9%
IND 102, ATL 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.4,0.34,0.45,0.54,0.45,0.72,1	90.8%