NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	92		Excitement	8.3 [222]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +48.8%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	2.6 [703]		LVP	T.J. Ford (MIL): -19.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.09	0.01	10	52%	0.12	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.10
Jiri Welsch	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	5	70%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.11	-0.03	0.01	18	62%	0.12	1	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Toni Kukoc	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	0.00	0.01	6	62%	0.06	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Mo Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	0.02	-0.08	0.03	14	62%	0.13	4	-0.22	1	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	10	27%	-0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.2,0.38,0.49	0.49	0.13	0.36	0.01	12	72%	0.53	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.05
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.11,0.11,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	19	54%	0.11	2	-0.05	12	75%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	70%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.01	11	62%	0.10	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	14	47%	0.01	2	-0.08	6	83%	-0.04
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	1	0%	-0.10	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	31.2	17.5	24.4	2.4	42.3	146.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +2.8%

SAS +19.3%

SAS +19.5%

SAS +1.7%

SAS +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	16.7	15.6	104.5	105.6	104.4
season	15.5	16.3		104.6	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		99.4	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.3	14.8	16.2	13.6	15.6
SAS	19.6	16.5	14.5	17.0	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	36	37	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.11	11	-14	25	15.1	16.0	-0.90	17.5	16.2	1.28
Jiri Welsch	26	28	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.05	4	-7	11	14.4	16.1	-1.74	16.8	16.7	0.13
Dan Gadzuric	14	13	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-3	3	16.1	15.5	0.63	15.8	16.9	-1.04
Ervin Johnson	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-2	1	5.0	15.7	-10.74	0.0	16.7	-16.73
Jermaine Jackson	2	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-1	-1	1.0	16.0	-14.95	1.7	17.3	-15.59
Jamaal Magloire	56	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	1	-5	17.2	12.8	4.40	16.9	16.5	0.41
Mo Williams	66	67	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-5	7	15.0	17.6	-2.64	16.3	18.0	-1.76
Michael Redd	74	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	1	-5	15.5	16.1	-0.63	16.2	19.3	-3.14
Andrew Bogut	56	57	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.39	-7	4	-11	15.9	15.1	0.82	17.7	15.0	2.69
Bobby Simmons	42	46	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.56	-4	1	-5	16.1	15.2	0.92	17.8	15.6	2.24
T.J. Ford	67	70	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.56	-10	7	-17	15.7	15.2	0.49	16.5	17.6	-1.11

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	69	67	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.50	12	-9	21	16.2	18.3	-2.09	15.9	14.7	1.18
Rasho Nesterovic	33	32	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-10	23	17.7	16.2	1.47	17.3	14.7	2.62
Michael Finley	53	51	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.50	0	3	-3	16.0	17.8	-1.78	15.3	16.1	-0.76
Tim Duncan	74	71	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.43	2	1	1	16.7	17.0	-0.32	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Manu Ginobili	66	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	0	3	16.8	16.6	0.20	14.7	18.0	-3.22
Brent Barry	14	14	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	2	-1	14.9	17.1	-2.22	13.1	16.1	-2.94
Bruce Bowen	58	58	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.21	-6	9	-15	16.2	17.8	-1.63	15.6	15.6	0.02
Fabricio Oberto	21	21	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	5	-7	18.3	16.3	2.02	16.1	15.5	0.63
Nazr Mohammed	41	41	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.14	1	2	-1	17.6	16.0	1.61	16.8	14.6	2.28
Nick Van Exel	21	21	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	-0.09	-9	12	-21	18.3	16.2	2.09	14.7	15.9	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 92, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.52,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.33,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.55,0.74,1	92.6%
MEM 96, CHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.52,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.38,0.63,0.66,0.83,1	91.9%
VAN 98, PHX 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.53,0.45,0.63,0.76,0.85,1	91.9%