NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	88		Excitement	4.5 [894]		MVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): +12.2%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	1.5 [827]		LVP	Jason Williams (SAC): -13.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lawrence Funderburke	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.05	8	65%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tyrone Corbin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.00	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	20	44%	-0.01	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Darrick Martin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	10	48%	-0.05	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.00
Nick Anderson	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	12	36%	-0.05	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Williams	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	15	52%	0.00	8	-0.14	3	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	13	69%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	9	52%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	13	55%	0.04	5	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	13	73%	0.10	7	-0.14	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	0.01	-0.05	9	32%	-0.04	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	28.1	15.5	29.4	2.4	27.6	129.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.6%

MIA +2.2%

MIA +4.5%

MIA +1.8%

SAC -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	14.0	15.2	85.4	95.1	101.7
season	13.8	15.7		102.9	101.2
opponent	15.9	14.7		98.2	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.8	16.0	13.6	12.4	13.9
MIA	11.4	14.7	13.0	17.6	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Delk	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	13.5	13.9	-0.44	20.5	13.9	6.60
Jon Barry	48	47	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-16	22	13.7	14.1	-0.34	16.0	12.4	3.66
Scot Pollard	25	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.11	2	-12	14	14.2	13.8	0.35	16.0	13.4	2.57
Lawrence Funderburke	36	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.23	3	-13	16	14.4	13.7	0.70	15.4	13.3	2.11
Corliss Williamson	42	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	-3	-4	13.7	14.1	-0.45	12.0	15.5	-3.56
Tyrone Corbin	8	9	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-4	-2	18.7	13.5	5.22	15.1	13.9	1.19
Darrick Martin	26	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-5	0	14.7	13.7	1.07	14.0	14.0	-0.04
Peja Stojakovic	53	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.29	3	-13	16	13.4	14.5	-1.06	15.6	12.5	3.09
Jason Williams	77	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-5	0	13.7	14.7	-1.07	14.0	14.0	0.04
Vlade Divac	67	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.03	-13	3	-16	13.7	14.4	-0.70	13.3	15.4	-2.11
Chris Webber	78	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.09	-12	2	-14	13.8	14.2	-0.35	13.4	16.0	-2.57
Nick Anderson	53	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.06	-18	8	-26	14.1	13.7	0.37	12.1	16.2	-4.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clar. Weatherspoon	61	60	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	0	10	12.8	15.9	-3.09	14.1	13.7	0.40
Jamal Mashburn	85	85	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	1	8	13.8	14.9	-1.04	13.8	14.8	-1.02
Dan Majerle	77	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	3	4	13.6	15.2	-1.56	14.0	13.9	0.11
P.J. Brown	61	61	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.01	12	-2	14	14.3	13.7	0.57	14.6	13.0	1.61
Rex Walters	46	43	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	3	4	15.5	12.8	2.66	14.0	13.9	0.04
Voshon Lenard	42	44	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	4	2	15.0	13.4	1.64	14.2	13.7	0.52
Alonzo Mourning	57	58	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	8	-6	14.8	13.0	1.82	13.5	14.5	-1.03
Mark Strickland	23	24	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	12	-14	14.1	14.0	0.13	12.5	14.4	-1.81
Anthony Carter	47	49	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	10	-10	12.9	15.0	-2.09	14.1	13.8	0.29
Duane Causwell	16	15	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	11	-12	14.3	14.0	0.34	14.0	13.9	0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.6,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 102, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
OKC 93, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
TOR 92, CHI 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%