NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	111		Excitement	6.9 [446]		MVP	Eddie Jones (CHH): +25.4%
Charlotte Hornets	117		Comeback	2.0 [612]		LVP	Haywoode Workman (MIL): -14.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	4	112%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.01	16	63%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01	0.07	-0.03	0.05	18	59%	0.01	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Vinny Del Negro	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Danny Manning	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	13	58%	0.04	3	-0.12	10	90%	0.05
Haywoode Workman	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	5	50%	0.00	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25	0.25	0.15	0.11	0.01	18	77%	0.34	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.03
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.00	8	82%	0.16	1	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Bobby Phills	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.03	15	53%	0.14	1	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	10	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	10	80%	-0.00
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	10	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	8	35%	-0.01	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	1.5	27.5	15.5	23.2	1.7	38.3	133.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +29.8%

CHH +3.4%

CHH +2.6%

CHH +11.9%

CHH +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHH	NBA	MIL	CHH	NBA
this game	15.0	15.3	15.2	116.8	123.2	101.7
season	14.9	14.9		105.5	101.5
opponent	15.1	15.4		99.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.0	17.6	12.0	15.5	15.0
CHH	16.3	14.3	17.5	13.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Traylor	30	30	0.33	-0.83	1.17	-0.08	14	-20	34	15.3	14.8	0.48	16.7	14.7	1.98
Dale Ellis	37	35	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-7	8	15.4	14.7	0.67	13.1	16.7	-3.58
J.R. Reid	62	61	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-11	16	13.7	17.3	-3.53	16.6	13.1	3.47
Haywoode Workman	28	29	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-2	-2	14.6	15.1	-0.46	15.6	15.3	0.29
Glenn Robinson	71	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.27	0	-6	6	13.9	18.2	-4.28	16.4	12.2	4.19
Sam Cassell	64	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-6	6	14.9	15.2	-0.29	15.6	14.8	0.76
Ray Allen	74	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-2	-2	14.4	17.1	-2.73	15.4	15.1	0.33
Ervin Johnson	46	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.06	-15	9	-24	15.0	14.9	0.06	15.1	15.6	-0.55
Vinny Del Negro	23	25	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	1	-8	19.3	13.6	5.78	13.7	15.9	-2.21
Danny Manning	40	40	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.22	-20	14	-34	17.1	13.4	3.68	13.2	16.9	-3.62

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Coleman	40	40	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.01	18	-12	30	13.9	16.4	-2.41	14.2	15.5	-1.33
Bobby Phills	83	82	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	4	-2	14.9	18.4	-3.51	15.7	10.2	5.49
David Wesley	70	68	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.32	1	5	-4	16.7	11.4	5.30	15.1	14.7	0.42
Eddie Jones	79	78	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	3	0	16.5	9.7	6.73	14.4	17.4	-2.98
Anthony Mason	68	67	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	5	-4	16.9	11.4	5.50	15.3	14.2	1.07
Eddie Robinson	28	30	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	-1	8	13.5	16.1	-2.67	14.3	15.3	-0.98
Brad Miller	27	28	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	1	4	11.4	16.9	-5.50	14.2	15.3	-1.07
Baron Davis	25	27	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	1	4	11.4	16.7	-5.30	14.7	15.1	-0.42
Elden Campbell	55	55	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.34	-12	18	-30	16.4	13.9	2.41	15.5	14.2	1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 86, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1	92.9%
MIN 93, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.84,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1	92.9%
CHI 85, PHX 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.78,0.86,0.96,0.96,0.96,1	92.8%