NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	3.9 [1008]		MVP	Ron Mercer (DEN): +16.3%
Vancouver Grizzlies	109		Comeback	1.5 [653]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -13.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0.16	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.18	-0.01	0.01	17	82%	0.22	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	16	53%	0.03	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
George McCloud	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	65%	0.01	2	-0.01	5	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	10	63%	0.03	3	-0.06	7	71%	-0.02
Keon Clark	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.13	0.00	-0.07	5	29%	-0.01	3	-0.05	4	50%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0.03	5	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	8	25%	-0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.01	-0.04	15	62%	0.13	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bryant Reeves	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	17	59%	0.07	1	-0.00	3	67%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	0.03	0.07	16	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	12	59%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Brent Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	125%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Joe Stephens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Dickerson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Obinna Ekezie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	0.8	27.4	14.8	23.1	2.5	31.5	125.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN +23.3%

DEN -2.2%

VAN +12.7%

VAN +19.3%

DEN -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	VAN	NBA	DEN	VAN	NBA
this game	15.9	17.0	15.2	109.3	122.5	101.7
season	14.8	15.9		101.5	99.5
opponent	15.0	15.0		105.9	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	15.7	18.7	14.6	15.9
VAN	16.6	17.0	15.6	18.8	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	18	19	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-15	15	14.8	16.2	-1.41	18.8	16.5	2.34
James Posey	31	31	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-18	21	15.5	16.1	-0.69	16.2	17.4	-1.29
Cory Alexander	21	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-12	9	15.4	16.1	-0.68	17.2	16.9	0.29
Ryan Bowen	21	21	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	-8	1	15.9	15.9	0.01	17.9	16.7	1.18
Ron Mercer	67	69	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.16	-3	-12	9	15.9	15.9	-0.07	16.7	17.9	-1.16
Raef LaFrentz	67	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.21	-3	-12	9	16.0	15.4	0.68	16.7	18.3	-1.60
Antonio McDyess	61	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-5	-5	16.2	15.1	1.15	16.8	17.6	-0.82
Keon Clark	37	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.10	-14	-1	-13	15.1	16.5	-1.38	17.3	16.8	0.46
Nick Van Exel	65	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	-3	-9	16.1	15.4	0.68	16.9	17.2	-0.29
George McCloud	42	44	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	0.11	-26	11	-37	16.7	15.1	1.55	17.4	16.6	0.81

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	81	79	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.00	19	-4	23	16.9	17.6	-0.69	16.0	15.0	0.97
Othella Harrington	69	69	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	7	1	16.8	17.6	-0.84	15.4	17.7	-2.26
Mike Bibby	66	66	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	5	5	17.0	16.9	0.12	15.5	17.0	-1.50
Bryant Reeves	69	67	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	12	-9	17.1	16.6	0.45	16.4	14.2	2.23
Michael Dickerson	56	56	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	15	-15	17.5	16.1	1.44	15.9	15.9	-0.06
Joe Stephens	41	37	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.14	11	4	7	16.4	17.5	-1.13	15.8	16.0	-0.24
Cherokee Parks	30	27	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.21	13	2	11	16.8	17.1	-0.35	16.2	15.7	0.48
Brent Price	25	21	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.10	7	8	-1	16.4	17.2	-0.78	16.5	15.7	0.83
Obinna Ekezie	8	8	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.05	4	11	-7	20.1	16.7	3.43	15.7	15.9	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.74,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 81, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.64,0.77,0.83,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
UTA 70, MIA 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
PHI 85, PHX 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.46,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%