NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	7.1 [408]		MVP	Doug Christie (TOR): +27.7%
Toronto Raptors	97		Comeback	2.9 [259]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -18.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	12	57%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	2	83%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Duane Causwell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.10	0.03	-0.04	19	41%	0.06	3	-0.09	3	0%	-0.05
Tim Hardaway	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.07	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	13	69%	0.11	6	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	10	40%	0.01	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14	-0.07	-0.04	0.02	7	21%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	3	12%	-0.10	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.29,0.28	0.28	0.16	0.14	0.03	15	82%	0.34	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	-0.00	0.16	-0.04	24	49%	0.24	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
John Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.04	0.04	11	50%	-0.09	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	9	29%	-0.12	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.6	28.2	16.4	23.2	2.5	34.5	132.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +36.7%

MIA -1.9%

MIA -13.1%

TOR +27.4%

TOR +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.9	15.7	15.2	91.5	103.2	101.7
season	15.7	15.5		101.2	101.8
opponent	14.9	15.9		102.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.6	17.3	13.5	16.8	14.9
TOR	15.7	13.5	17.0	16.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	69	69	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.02	7	-18	25	14.0	17.7	-3.72	15.8	15.4	0.34
Mark Strickland	11	11	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-10	9	17.2	14.7	2.53	13.8	15.9	-2.12
Anthony Carter	16	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-11	11	19.4	14.0	5.41	16.3	15.6	0.75
Rex Walters	13	14	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-7	3	18.5	14.4	4.17	13.4	16.1	-2.66
P.J. Brown	71	70	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-13	15	14.1	17.6	-3.52	16.1	14.5	1.66
Duane Causwell	4	3	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-4	-3	12.7	15.0	-2.29	12.3	15.8	-3.47
Jamal Mashburn	73	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-7	3	14.4	16.7	-2.28	15.9	15.0	0.83
Clar. Weatherspoon	45	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-6	1	17.2	12.9	4.37	15.9	15.5	0.48
Tim Hardaway	65	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-4	-3	13.1	19.0	-5.91	16.0	15.0	1.06
Alonzo Mourning	66	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.16	-8	-3	-5	14.8	15.4	-0.64	15.5	16.2	-0.69
Voshon Lenard	37	37	-1.03	0.53	-1.56	-0.21	-28	17	-45	16.6	13.9	2.72	15.2	16.0	-0.74

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Davis	75	73	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.32	13	-2	15	15.7	15.5	0.27	14.2	17.5	-3.32
Vince Carter	64	66	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.19	15	-4	19	15.4	16.4	-1.04	15.3	14.0	1.35
Kevin Willis	39	39	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.05	17	-6	23	15.3	15.9	-0.61	18.0	12.8	5.22
Doug Christie	67	67	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	1	9	15.8	15.4	0.40	13.5	18.6	-5.11
Dell Curry	34	35	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.06	9	2	7	15.7	15.7	-0.02	18.0	13.1	4.91
Charles Oakley	54	55	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.22	-2	13	-15	16.4	14.7	1.73	12.9	17.8	-4.91
Tracy McGrady	51	48	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	10	-9	16.0	15.3	0.72	13.9	16.0	-2.11
Alvin Williams	41	40	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	10	-9	15.4	15.9	-0.53	12.4	16.9	-4.48
Muggsy Bogues	27	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	10	-9	15.4	15.8	-0.40	18.4	13.5	4.91
John Thomas	18	19	-0.41	0.92	-1.33	-0.12	-10	21	-31	15.0	15.9	-0.86	18.5	14.1	4.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.81,0.85,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 94, NJN 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.78,0.89,0.84,0.85,1,1	91.6%
IND 86, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1	91.3%
LAL 102, IND 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.47,0.29,0.53,0.64,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.99,1	91.2%