NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	6.9 [436]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +11.1%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	2.0 [345]		LVP	Tariq Abdul-Wahad (ORL): -31.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.01	16	56%	0.16	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Mills	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	55%	-0.01	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	11	50%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	21	58%	0.06	7	-0.18	10	90%	0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	13	53%	-0.04	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	15	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	7	78%	0.14	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.05	0.04	11	59%	0.07	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.02
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	12	44%	0.02	2	-0.06	3	67%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	12	40%	0.02	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.07
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	7	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.31,-0.3,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.24	-0.09	-0.02	18	31%	-0.20	6	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	33.7	16.3	23.6	2.4	43.6	147.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +16.5%

DET -9.0%

ORL +46.8%

ORL +0.1%

DET -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	13.4	13.9	15.2	87.9	99.0	101.7
season	14.1	13.6		104.2	100.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		99.3	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.1	13.6	13.4	11.8	13.4
ORL	13.7	14.7	14.3	13.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Don Reid	29	29	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-12	15	13.8	13.2	0.58	12.9	14.3	-1.35
Jud Buechler	22	23	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.17	6	-15	21	11.1	14.0	-2.91	13.0	14.2	-1.16
Terry Mills	23	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	12.9	13.5	-0.62	13.1	14.1	-0.95
Jerry Stackhouse	77	75	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-14	19	13.1	14.2	-1.11	13.4	15.1	-1.66
Lindsey Hunter	80	77	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.15	-3	-6	3	14.4	10.4	4.05	13.4	15.5	-2.13
Michael Curry	38	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	2	-13	13.1	13.6	-0.42	15.1	13.3	1.79
Marcus Brown	23	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-2	-5	11.5	13.9	-2.45	17.6	12.9	4.76
Christian Laettner	76	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-3	-3	13.5	13.1	0.38	14.7	11.7	3.02
Grant Hill	87	85	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.17	-14	5	-19	13.7	12.1	1.60	13.4	16.4	-3.02
Jerome Williams	80	75	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.00	-20	11	-31	13.5	13.0	0.59	13.9	14.0	-0.09

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	79	82	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.25	15	-6	21	13.0	16.8	-3.81	13.8	12.1	1.67
Chris Gatling	45	47	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	-4	17	14.8	13.2	1.58	14.6	12.5	2.09
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	64	66	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	2	5	12.8	15.6	-2.84	13.5	13.3	0.14
Pat Garrity	59	59	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.10	9	0	9	15.3	12.1	3.24	13.7	13.1	0.58
Monty Williams	63	64	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	4	1	14.1	13.5	0.61	12.8	14.3	-1.51
Chucky Atkins	33	34	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.03	10	-1	11	14.2	13.8	0.41	12.1	14.0	-1.84
Darrell Armstrong	75	77	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.18	2	7	-5	13.2	15.7	-2.48	13.5	13.2	0.23
Ben Wallace	29	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.12	-5	14	-19	14.3	13.7	0.56	12.8	13.6	-0.88
Corey Maggette	34	36	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	12	-15	15.8	13.0	2.81	12.9	13.7	-0.81
Michael Doleac	39	41	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.15	-8	17	-25	13.2	14.4	-1.20	13.6	13.3	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.89,0.99,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 77, SAC 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.83,1	93.7%
MIN 77, SAS 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.69,0.65,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.98,1	93.6%
NOP 96, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.91,0.85,0.98,0.97,1,1	93.1%