NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	112		Excitement	4.9 [508]		MVP	Scot Pollard (SAC): +12.4%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	1.2 [451]		LVP	Cory Alexander (DEN): -10.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scot Pollard	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.01	9	80%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lawrence Funderburke	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.00	6	93%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Vlade Divac	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	15	62%	0.08	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.00
Corliss Williamson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	14	49%	0.00	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.02
Vernon Maxwell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.03	-0.05	13	34%	-0.00	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Jason Williams	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.00	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	20	63%	0.14	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Johnny Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	15	60%	0.02	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.07	13	67%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	20	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	27.1	15.3	23.9	1.7	30.6	122.3
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +30.5%

SAC +5.1%

SAC +7.1%

SAC +1.6%

SAC +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	13.5	15.8	112.0	105.1	99.6
season	14.1	15.5		100.1	100.7
opponent	15.6	15.5		107.6	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.3	14.8	16.8	17.3	15.5
DEN	12.9	14.6	13.2	13.2	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	61	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	-2	12	15.9	14.8	1.06	13.7	13.1	0.54
Jason Williams	74	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	-1	10	16.0	14.0	2.04	12.8	15.3	-2.57
Vernon Maxwell	68	68	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	4	0	15.8	14.8	1.01	13.4	13.5	-0.12
Jon Barry	51	51	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	0	8	14.9	16.0	-1.08	14.5	12.3	2.20
Vlade Divac	76	74	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.26	3	5	-2	16.0	13.8	2.21	13.5	13.5	-0.02
Scot Pollard	77	77	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.28	1	7	-6	15.9	14.0	1.91	13.3	13.9	-0.57
Lawrence Funderburke	30	31	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.03	5	3	2	13.4	16.4	-3.00	14.2	13.1	1.06
Corliss Williamson	34	33	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	8	-8	14.0	16.2	-2.18	13.0	13.7	-0.74
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	29	28	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	8	-8	14.7	15.8	-1.05	13.1	13.6	-0.50

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Alexander	25	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-11	14	15.2	12.9	2.38	13.6	16.1	-2.55
Bryant Stith	50	52	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.16	4	-12	16	13.7	13.2	0.44	16.6	14.3	2.27
Carl Herrera	16	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-11	14	15.1	13.1	1.98	17.1	15.1	1.99
Eric Williams	13	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-3	-2	14.5	13.3	1.15	16.1	15.4	0.70
Johnny Taylor	20	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.11	-10	2	-12	13.7	13.4	0.29	12.7	16.2	-3.55
Antonio McDyess	90	89	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.28	0	-8	8	13.5	13.3	0.14	15.1	18.6	-3.56
Nick Van Exel	81	83	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-3	-2	13.3	14.2	-0.86	15.8	13.7	2.13
Eric Washington	41	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.05	-12	4	-16	12.9	13.9	-0.96	13.8	16.6	-2.86
Danny Fortson	74	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.17	-10	2	-12	13.0	14.9	-1.89	16.0	13.9	2.07
Chauncey Billups	85	85	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.28	-8	0	-8	13.1	15.6	-2.45	16.1	12.1	3.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 134, CHI 125	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.21,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
HOU 127, MEM 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
NYK 86, PHI 75	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	95.3%