NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	93		Excitement	7.0 [238]		MVP	Terry Porter (MIA): +40.3%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	5.8 [146]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -16.4%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Brown	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.13	0.10	0.05	0.01	13	65%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.11	0.00	16	66%	0.23	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Derrick Coleman	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.09	0.00	10	50%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chuck Person	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Phills	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	39%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	12	52%	-0.04	1	-0.02	7	86%	-0.01
Eldridge Recasner	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.11	-0.02	11	57%	0.08	3	-0.19	6	100%	0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.4	0.40	0.14	0.27	0.00	11	78%	0.40	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.07	0.01	9	83%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.09,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.10	0.08	-0.05	19	42%	0.12	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	71%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	11	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	11	54%	-0.08	4	-0.09	13	54%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	26.5	15.4	26.9	1.8	36.3	131.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +21.6%

CHH -7.3%

MIA +6.7%

MIA +27.8%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	MIA	NBA	CHH	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	16.5	15.8	104.5	112.4	99.6
season	15.7	16.6		99.2	101.3
opponent	16.7	15.5		96.8	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	13.9	15.7	17.0	17.1	15.9
MIA	16.7	16.4	15.7	17.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	76	74	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.11	8	-15	23	15.7	17.2	-1.48	16.3	17.5	-1.28
Chuck Person	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-2	-3	18.1	15.5	2.59	15.8	16.6	-0.81
Elden Campbell	64	65	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-12	17	15.3	17.3	-1.99	17.0	15.2	1.79
Eldridge Recasner	22	25	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	4	-15	18.2	15.1	3.11	17.6	16.0	1.57
Bobby Phills	73	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.37	1	-8	9	15.2	18.9	-3.64	16.1	18.1	-1.94
David Wesley	76	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-2	-3	15.7	17.2	-1.48	16.5	16.1	0.46
Chucky Brown	77	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	1	-9	15.7	17.3	-1.67	16.4	17.0	-0.64
Derrick Coleman	43	44	-0.96	0.46	-1.43	-0.38	-20	13	-33	17.1	14.8	2.33	16.3	16.6	-0.26

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	54	54	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.23	23	-16	39	16.3	16.7	-0.40	17.7	13.1	4.52
Alonzo Mourning	80	79	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.37	11	-4	15	16.3	17.6	-1.21	15.8	16.8	-1.03
Tim Hardaway	78	80	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	2	3	15.5	23.5	-8.07	15.7	17.6	-1.86
Jamal Mashburn	69	70	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.33	-2	9	-11	16.5	16.4	0.09	15.2	18.5	-3.29
Clar. Weatherspoon	31	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.14	12	-5	17	17.1	16.2	0.91	19.1	14.3	4.80
Mark Strickland	15	13	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	0	7	17.9	16.2	1.76	20.0	15.2	4.82
P.J. Brown	66	69	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.38	-10	17	-27	16.1	17.6	-1.47	14.6	20.2	-5.56
Voshon Lenard	52	50	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.05	-11	18	-29	18.0	14.3	3.68	14.2	18.1	-3.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.19,0.44,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 94, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.72,1	92.5%
POR 91, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.74,1	92.3%
MIN 93, BOS 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.25,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.55,0.83,1	91.7%