NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	95		Excitement	5.6 [415]		MVP	Nick Anderson (ORL): +22.1%
Orlando Magic	107		Comeback	2.0 [664]		LVP	Jamie Feick (NJN): -12.2%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.15	0.03	0.03	22	68%	0.21	2	-0.07	9	89%	0.03
David Vaughn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Hendrickson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Elliot Perry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	2	125%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	13	38%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.04	6	57%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Carr	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	14	47%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jamie Feick	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.22	0.07	0.06	19	80%	0.27	2	-0.04	12	75%	0.03
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	14	65%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	7	71%	0.06	3	-0.05	3	0%	-0.06
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	12	42%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	12	35%	-0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Ike Austin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	6	29%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	28.4	16.3	22.7	2.6	29.0	125.8
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +27.2%

ORL +2.3%

ORL +35.2%

NJN -11.1%

NJN -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	ORL	NBA	NJN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.6	15.8	102.2	115.1	99.6
season	15.0	16.1		96.5	98.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		95.7	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	14.4	14.4	17.1	16.0	15.4
ORL	16.3	13.8	17.2	15.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lucious Harris	47	47	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.12	11	-23	34	14.2	16.6	-2.37	15.6	15.5	0.12
David Vaughn	22	20	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.04	1	-13	14	13.4	16.0	-2.62	12.9	16.3	-3.32
Chris Carr	10	9	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-8	4	17.8	15.1	2.68	10.8	16.1	-5.29
Stephon Marbury	76	77	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-16	20	14.9	17.5	-2.60	16.2	12.4	3.77
Elliot Perry	17	16	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.15	-16	4	-20	17.5	14.9	2.60	12.4	16.2	-3.77
Jamie Feick	76	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	-3	-6	15.4	15.4	0.07	15.8	14.6	1.12
Mark Hendrickson	78	79	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	-2	-8	15.8	13.4	2.39	16.2	11.9	4.27
Kendall Gill	64	65	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.02	-18	6	-24	15.4	15.5	-0.11	16.1	14.2	1.87
Kerry Kittles	75	76	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.09	-19	7	-26	16.0	12.8	3.19	15.4	16.2	-0.76

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	74	72	0.79	-0.29	1.09	-0.03	28	-16	44	15.2	16.8	-1.55	16.1	13.0	3.05
Nick Anderson	78	75	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.01	20	-8	28	15.5	16.0	-0.53	15.7	14.2	1.54
Anfernee Hardaway	75	76	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.00	19	-7	26	15.6	15.6	0.00	15.4	15.3	0.14
Bo Outlaw	55	55	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	-2	16	14.2	17.6	-3.42	15.9	14.7	1.27
Horace Grant	69	70	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	7	-2	16.2	13.6	2.61	15.9	14.0	1.87
Derek Strong	16	15	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.08	12	0	12	12.4	16.2	-3.77	15.2	15.4	-0.25
Ike Austin	29	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	15	-18	18.7	14.1	4.60	14.8	15.7	-0.89
Michael Doleac	17	17	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	16	-20	14.9	15.7	-0.83	13.1	15.9	-2.88
Matt Harpring	33	35	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.28	-15	27	-42	15.8	15.4	0.31	14.7	15.8	-1.11
B.J. Armstrong	19	21	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	0.18	-16	28	-44	16.8	15.2	1.55	13.0	16.1	-3.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.88,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 104, MIN 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	94.4%
NJN 87, CHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.8%
LAC 120, GSW 127	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.86,0.72,0.9,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.96,1,1,1	93.6%