NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	5.4 [444]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +13.1%
Utah Jazz	69		Comeback	1.0 [298]		LVP	David Robinson (SAS): -17.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	24	64%	0.20	3	-0.07	8	75%	0.01
Sean Elliott	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	5	31%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	8	37%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.03	0.01	12	35%	-0.15	1	-0.03	10	60%	-0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	44%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adam Keefe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	14	62%	0.05	4	-0.09	9	78%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	8	28%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
John Stockton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	12	32%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Thurl Bailey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	11	48%	-0.01	4	-0.09	1	0%	-0.03
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	10	33%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	50.5	1.8	27.2	17.4	23.5	2.4	28.5	151.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +26.2%

SAS +17.7%

SAS +2.4%

SAS +5.9%

UTA -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	17.0	16.1	15.8	94.3	80.2	99.6
season	15.9	16.4		101.1	102.6
opponent	16.0	15.9		96.1	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.4	16.2	18.4	18.2	17.0
UTA	15.2	15.1	21.6	13.7	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	72	71	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.02	17	-3	20	17.0	16.9	0.02	16.6	14.1	2.51
Sean Elliott	65	63	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	2	10	17.4	15.7	1.70	16.3	15.6	0.72
David Robinson	53	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.05	14	0	14	16.4	17.8	-1.40	15.1	17.9	-2.76
Avery Johnson	56	55	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.04	13	1	12	17.3	16.3	1.01	16.3	15.8	0.52
Mario Elie	54	53	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.04	10	4	6	17.5	16.0	1.51	15.9	16.5	-0.61
Steve Kerr	34	33	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.12	4	10	-6	16.0	17.5	-1.51	16.5	15.9	0.61
Antonio Daniels	32	31	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.13	1	13	-12	16.3	17.3	-1.01	15.8	16.3	-0.52
Jerome Kersey	23	23	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	12	-10	15.7	17.4	-1.70	15.6	16.3	-0.72
Malik Rose	46	43	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.14	-2	16	-18	18.3	15.5	2.74	17.3	15.0	2.37
Will Perdue	5	3	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	15	-16	10.8	17.3	-6.53	7.0	16.5	-9.47

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adam Keefe	14	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-10	6	14.2	16.5	-2.30	14.2	17.4	-3.29
Todd Fuller	34	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-13	12	15.4	16.7	-1.30	16.3	17.4	-1.11
Shandon Anderson	36	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-14	14	16.1	16.1	-0.00	17.4	16.7	0.68
Greg Ostertag	27	29	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-10	6	19.0	14.8	4.17	18.2	16.3	1.87
Thurl Bailey	13	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	-6	-2	18.5	15.7	2.83	12.8	17.7	-4.82
Greg Foster	25	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	-5	-4	14.1	17.0	-2.85	16.4	17.2	-0.74
John Stockton	59	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	-6	-2	15.2	18.3	-3.09	17.7	15.4	2.29
Howard Eisley	27	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-8	2	18.3	15.2	3.09	15.4	17.7	-2.29
Karl Malone	73	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-8	2	15.7	18.5	-2.83	17.7	12.8	4.82
Jeff Hornacek	54	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	0	-14	16.1	16.1	0.02	16.1	18.3	-2.16
Bryon Russell	68	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.13	-10	-4	-6	16.5	14.7	1.86	17.9	13.1	4.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.32,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 90, MIN 77	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
SAS 72, POR 65	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.08,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.6%
GSW 100, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%