NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	83		Excitement	7.2 [215]		MVP	Nick Anderson (ORL): +16.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	5.0 [177]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -39.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Anderson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0.16,0.16,0.16	-0.01	0.13	-0.04	16	44%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	0.00	2	78%	0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Michael Doleac	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	0.00	2	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.02	-0.06	20	38%	0.04	1	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	16	38%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Derek Strong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Horace Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.03	10	27%	-0.07	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Darrell Armstrong	-0.39	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.39,-0.39	-0.17	-0.23	-0.01	12	39%	-0.10	6	-0.30	4	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.00	0.11	0.00	3	50%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.00	7	71%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.02	0.10	-0.02	15	60%	0.23	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	5	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Robert Traylor	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	61%	0.02	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.06
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	7	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Haywoode Workman	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.02	14	55%	0.04	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	29.3	15.0	24.1	1.8	37.3	133.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +57.6%

MIL +3.0%

ORL -24.5%

MIL +15.8%

ORL -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	17.0	15.7	15.8	93.3	109.2	99.6
season	16.1	15.8		98.0	102.4
opponent	16.4	15.6		100.9	95.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	18.7	16.2	16.8	16.2	17.0
MIL	15.6	17.3	13.7	16.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Strong	39	39	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.07	11	-23	34	18.1	16.1	2.02	17.8	14.1	3.76
Michael Doleac	19	19	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.08	4	-16	20	16.9	17.0	-0.02	17.8	15.2	2.68
Bo Outlaw	33	32	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-15	18	17.8	16.5	1.35	17.9	14.5	3.46
Nick Anderson	52	52	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-11	10	16.5	17.6	-1.08	16.2	15.1	1.01
Matt Harpring	56	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-1	-10	16.7	17.4	-0.63	15.4	16.3	-0.90
Ike Austin	53	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.06	-13	1	-14	16.7	17.3	-0.57	14.6	17.4	-2.85
Anfernee Hardaway	80	79	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.14	-15	3	-18	17.3	14.1	3.18	15.7	16.2	-0.55
Darrell Armstrong	66	64	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.07	-19	7	-26	16.5	18.3	-1.86	14.6	18.9	-4.30
Horace Grant	47	45	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.17	-19	7	-26	16.6	17.4	-0.79	14.5	17.1	-2.61

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glenn Robinson	58	59	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.22	20	-8	28	14.7	17.8	-3.12	17.2	16.4	0.80
Ray Allen	73	74	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.10	23	-11	34	15.2	18.8	-3.62	17.1	16.1	1.08
Ervin Johnson	41	42	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	5	2	16.9	14.7	2.14	17.0	16.9	0.06
Michael Curry	38	40	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	8	-4	16.6	15.1	1.43	17.0	16.9	0.06
Robert Traylor	41	43	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.01	10	2	8	14.3	17.0	-2.66	17.2	16.8	0.43
Haywoode Workman	62	61	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.12	11	1	10	14.6	18.6	-4.06	16.4	18.1	-1.72
Vinny Del Negro	42	43	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.27	-3	15	-18	18.4	13.3	5.05	17.4	16.6	0.83
Tim Thomas	49	51	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	9	-6	15.1	16.6	-1.52	17.1	16.8	0.22
Chris Gatling	31	32	-0.61	1.11	-1.72	-0.17	-15	27	-42	18.3	14.3	3.95	16.0	17.5	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.72,0.76,0.7,0.75,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.32,0.17,0.29,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 100, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.57,0.66,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.64,0.85,0.96,1	92.7%
CHH 87, DEN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.79,0.9,1,1	91.7%
WAS 90, MIL 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.71,0.78,0.92,1	91.5%