NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	90		Excitement	7.2 [365]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +26.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	97		Comeback	2.4 [611]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (WAS): -16.2%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kwame Brown	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.07	-0.04	13	62%	0.17	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.00
Brendan Haywood	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	70%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04
Etan Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Bryon Russell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	7	57%	0.09	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	24	47%	-0.03	2	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.02	13	18%	-0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.15	0.03	19	67%	0.27	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.09	0.00	8	75%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	-0.00	6	67%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.01	15	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	0	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	6	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	17	44%	-0.06	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	23.5	16.4	21.4	2.3	35.7	125.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +19.7%

MIL +17.9%

WAS -11.8%

MIL +14.5%

MIL +9.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	17.8	16.2	15.5	105.9	115.5	101.6
season	16.5	15.4		100.9	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		106.5	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	17.4	16.8	19.5	17.8	17.8
MIL	13.9	19.3	18.4	14.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyronn Lue	37	37	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-10	13	16.5	18.9	-2.31	16.5	16.0	0.51
Jerry Stackhouse	42	41	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-6	5	17.0	18.7	-1.67	16.1	16.3	-0.20
Christian Laettner	29	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-4	1	19.7	16.9	2.74	16.2	16.2	-0.07
Brendan Haywood	28	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.07	-6	-1	-5	18.8	17.4	1.45	15.8	16.4	-0.61
Etan Thomas	51	48	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-5	3	17.0	19.2	-2.22	16.8	15.4	1.42
Kwame Brown	61	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-7	7	17.4	18.9	-1.43	16.5	15.6	0.91
Bryon Russell	53	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-5	3	18.2	17.2	1.06	16.5	15.7	0.82
Larry Hughes	57	58	-0.45	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	1	-9	18.0	17.6	0.36	15.3	18.3	-3.07
Michael Jordan	67	65	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.27	-16	9	-25	18.5	15.3	3.26	16.2	16.2	0.09

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	63	63	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.33	13	-6	19	16.1	16.6	-0.52	18.7	15.4	3.29
Anthony Mason	66	67	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.34	12	-5	17	15.7	18.2	-2.47	18.3	16.1	2.20
Ervin Johnson	51	54	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.38	9	-2	11	15.7	17.0	-1.22	17.2	19.0	-1.76
Sam Cassell	64	66	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.31	9	-2	11	15.5	18.4	-2.85	18.1	17.1	1.02
Michael Redd	45	45	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.31	1	6	-5	15.9	16.6	-0.77	17.4	18.4	-1.04
Dan Gadzuric	12	12	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	5	-3	18.1	15.9	2.17	21.2	17.3	3.87
Tim Thomas	54	54	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.16	6	1	5	15.8	17.0	-1.20	17.2	19.0	-1.76
Jason Caffey	11	11	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	7	-7	19.9	15.7	4.24	17.7	17.9	-0.14
Kevin Ollie	20	19	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	9	-11	18.4	15.5	2.85	17.1	18.1	-1.02
Toni Kukoc	34	34	-0.50	1.00	-1.50	-0.06	-15	22	-37	17.5	15.3	2.19	16.9	18.5	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.71,0.78,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 87, DEN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.79,0.9,1,1	93.1%
ORL 83, MIL 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.72,0.76,0.7,0.75,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.32,0.17,0.29,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.99,1	91.5%
VAN 84, PHX 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.62,0.89,0.77,0.96,1	91.5%