NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	93		Excitement	5.8 [396]		MVP	Larry Johnson (NYK): +8.7%
New York Knicks	90		Comeback	1.1 [250]		LVP	Marcus Camby (NYK): -14.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06	0.00	0.04	-0.02	15	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.02
John Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	10	63%	0.12	3	-0.07	7	71%	0.01
Alvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
John Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	13	47%	0.01	2	-0.07	6	83%	-0.01
Dee Brown	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	9	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.02	0.05	19	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Chris Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Allan Houston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	14	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Charlie Ward	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	59%	-0.01	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.06
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	12	44%	-0.09	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.03
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	24.9	17.0	29.2	2.4	40.3	143.5
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +40.8%

TOR +10.1%

TOR +7.3%

NYK -9.5%

TOR +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NYK	NBA	TOR	NYK	NBA
this game	17.2	16.7	15.8	109.4	105.9	99.6
season	15.6	16.0		99.0	97.0
opponent	16.6	15.9		95.1	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.6	15.7	19.7	19.1	17.2
NYK	18.1	17.0	17.2	14.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Willis	62	65	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.30	16	-13	29	17.2	17.3	-0.14	16.8	16.3	0.50
Doug Christie	66	65	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.37	6	-3	9	17.1	17.6	-0.49	16.4	17.4	-1.00
Vince Carter	60	61	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-1	5	17.2	17.2	0.06	17.1	15.6	1.47
Dee Brown	52	54	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.51	-3	6	-9	17.1	17.4	-0.32	15.6	18.6	-3.04
Alvin Williams	36	36	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.04	6	-3	9	17.6	16.9	0.71	18.6	15.3	3.35
Tracy McGrady	19	19	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	0	3	14.8	17.9	-3.10	16.0	16.9	-0.88
John Thomas	40	39	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	6	-9	17.4	17.0	0.42	15.6	17.6	-1.97
John Wallace	30	28	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.09	-8	11	-19	18.7	16.4	2.32	16.5	16.8	-0.22

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	38	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.03	-1	-2	1	15.6	17.6	-2.00	17.2	17.2	0.09
Chris Dudley	11	10	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	4	-11	16.0	16.8	-0.78	16.1	17.3	-1.25
Larry Johnson	49	51	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-2	1	17.6	15.5	2.10	17.1	17.4	-0.25
Chris Childs	35	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-5	7	15.5	17.5	-2.03	18.8	16.1	2.66
Charlie Ward	51	53	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.22	-1	-2	1	17.4	15.6	1.73	16.3	18.7	-2.34
Kurt Thomas	37	36	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	8	-19	18.6	15.2	3.34	17.9	16.7	1.20
Latrell Sprewell	69	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.52	5	-8	13	15.8	20.6	-4.86	17.3	16.7	0.55
Patrick Ewing	64	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-3	3	16.9	16.1	0.72	17.4	16.6	0.72
Allan Houston	71	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	-2	1	16.6	17.1	-0.47	16.7	19.8	-3.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.27,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 117, UTA 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.4%
CLE 107, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.01,0	93.3%
CLE 89, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.03,0.01,0	93.2%