NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	79		Excitement	3.6 [664]		MVP	Bobby Jackson (MIN): +9.4%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	1.2 [636]		LVP	Joe Smith (MIN): -18.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.01	7	87%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bill Curley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	2	0%	-0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	15	43%	-0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrae Patterson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	12	32%	-0.08	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Joe Smith	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.17	-0.02	-0.00	12	19%	-0.14	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	15	57%	0.06	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	60%	0.03	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	7	62%	0.04	4	-0.04	2	0%	-0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	12	53%	0.02	3	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	57%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	30.2	16.7	22.2	2.4	26.7	123.3
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +24.5%

MIN -4.9%

SAS +10.1%

SAS +18.0%

SAS +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	16.0	14.9	15.8	84.9	101.1	99.6
season	15.0	15.9		98.6	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.9		92.7	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	18.0	17.3	15.7	13.4	16.0
SAS	14.1	16.2	15.7	13.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bill Curley	27	28	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.05	2	-18	20	13.7	16.9	-3.18	13.3	15.5	-2.23
Reggie Jordan	26	27	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-16	16	13.4	17.0	-3.57	13.8	15.3	-1.51
Andrae Patterson	24	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-11	6	14.5	16.4	-1.91	14.8	14.9	-0.03
Dennis Scott	46	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-11	6	15.3	16.6	-1.21	14.4	15.3	-0.85
Tom Hammonds	22	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-8	0	17.7	15.4	2.32	14.6	14.9	-0.32
James Robinson	46	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.00	-8	-8	0	14.9	17.0	-2.07	14.1	15.7	-1.61
Bobby Jackson	53	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-9	2	17.1	14.4	2.73	15.5	14.0	1.51
Joe Smith	55	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-6	-4	16.5	15.1	1.40	15.5	13.9	1.59
Sam Mitchell	56	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.05	-11	-5	-6	16.3	15.5	0.78	15.0	14.6	0.47
Dean Garrett	57	58	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	-3	-10	16.3	15.4	0.84	15.3	14.1	1.29

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	54	56	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.08	21	-5	26	15.5	14.0	1.44	16.7	14.8	1.86
Tim Duncan	60	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.00	16	0	16	15.4	13.9	1.43	17.2	13.7	3.55
Avery Johnson	45	45	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	3	10	15.4	14.3	1.10	16.8	15.1	1.72
Jerome Kersey	37	36	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.00	13	3	10	14.6	15.0	-0.42	16.2	15.8	0.48
Mario Elie	41	42	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.01	10	6	4	15.5	14.4	1.09	17.2	14.9	2.34
Steve Kerr	53	51	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	10	-4	14.4	15.5	-1.09	14.9	17.2	-2.34
Sean Elliott	38	39	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	13	-10	16.0	14.1	1.93	17.4	14.9	2.50
Antonio Daniels	49	48	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	13	-10	14.3	15.4	-1.10	15.1	16.8	-1.72
Malik Rose	28	26	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	17	-18	14.4	15.0	-0.65	15.4	16.2	-0.79
Jaren Jackson	19	18	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	16	-16	13.1	15.3	-2.25	12.2	16.9	-4.63
Will Perdue	34	32	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.09	-5	21	-26	14.2	15.2	-1.06	14.4	16.8	-2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 111, TOR 123	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.64,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
IND 86, DEN 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.87,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
POR 96, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%