NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	101		Excitement	6.1 [355]		MVP	Kenny Anderson (BOS): +17.8%
Toronto Raptors	89		Comeback	2.2 [134]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (TOR): -15.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Anderson	0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.07	-0.00	14	72%	0.23	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.02	15	56%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Dana Barros	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Riley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	12	64%	0.09	5	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
Walter McCarty	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Greg Minor	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	14	47%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.04	12	41%	-0.01	6	-0.13	3	33%	-0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	22	60%	0.12	2	-0.03	8	75%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	15	41%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	-0.05	3	33%	0.02	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	13	56%	0.02	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	4	60%	-0.00	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.2	27.5	15.4	24.7	2.5	35.3	132.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +50.7%

TOR -25.4%

BOS +9.1%

BOS +15.2%

BOS +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	15.5	15.8	109.8	91.8	99.6
season	15.0	15.6		98.1	99.0
opponent	15.9	15.8		101.2	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.2	16.3	12.4	15.0	15.0
TOR	16.5	13.8	18.6	13.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	64	69	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.09	18	-6	24	14.7	15.6	-0.87	17.0	11.6	5.47
Ron Mercer	77	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.06	18	-6	24	14.5	17.4	-2.87	16.5	10.2	6.24
Walter McCarty	23	24	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.11	6	6	0	13.7	15.4	-1.68	14.5	15.8	-1.34
Paul Pierce	62	66	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	5	2	15.6	13.7	1.93	16.1	14.0	2.10
Dana Barros	22	24	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.03	10	2	8	12.6	15.7	-3.11	15.6	15.4	0.16
Antoine Walker	74	77	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.08	6	6	0	15.8	11.8	4.01	15.5	15.4	0.02
Kenny Anderson	70	73	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.18	2	10	-8	15.7	12.6	3.11	15.4	15.6	-0.16
Greg Minor	36	36	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	12	-12	13.6	15.9	-2.33	11.8	17.6	-5.77
Eric Riley	3	3	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	14	-16	25.7	14.6	11.03	6.7	15.7	-9.08
Tony Battie	29	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.01	-5	17	-22	15.1	14.9	0.20	13.7	16.3	-2.60

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Slater	19	16	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.05	8	-20	28	13.6	15.9	-2.34	13.9	15.2	-1.29
Michael Stewart	3	2	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-10	8	22.0	15.3	6.74	19.5	14.9	4.60
Vince Carter	82	76	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-13	14	15.4	16.1	-0.71	15.0	14.8	0.23
Tracy McGrady	35	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-13	14	13.6	16.5	-2.96	11.8	16.9	-5.12
Alvin Williams	65	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	-9	6	16.6	13.1	3.54	17.0	11.4	5.62
John Thomas	15	14	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-7	2	15.8	15.4	0.40	12.9	15.4	-2.53
Charles Oakley	72	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-8	4	15.3	15.9	-0.56	15.6	13.3	2.26
John Wallace	17	17	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.05	-8	-4	-4	16.1	15.3	0.79	15.1	15.0	0.07
Kevin Willis	65	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.09	-13	1	-14	16.0	14.3	1.72	15.5	13.9	1.68
Doug Christie	70	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.07	-15	3	-18	15.9	14.3	1.67	15.7	13.2	2.47
Dee Brown	42	43	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.03	-20	8	-28	14.0	16.5	-2.50	12.9	16.9	-4.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.67,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.47,0.34,0.18,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, ATL 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.1%
TOR 113, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.26,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.05,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.0%
MEM 106, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	93.3%