NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	87		Excitement	5.3 [458]		MVP	Mike Bibby (VAN): +16.4%
Vancouver Grizzlies	101		Comeback	2.0 [403]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -20.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	18	55%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	22	52%	0.04	0	0.00	12	92%	0.05
Eric Washington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	7	71%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Taylor	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.20	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.07	-0.00	12	33%	-0.11	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.05	-0.03	14	67%	0.18	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
DeJuan Wheat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	2	83%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	14	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	15	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.01
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	7	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.04
Pete Chilcutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Dehere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	12	58%	0.05	4	-0.09	14	79%	0.01
J.R. Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	1	60%	-0.03	2	-0.06	8	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	22.4	14.7	26.6	1.8	41.2	131.3
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN +37.7%

VAN +2.3%

VAN +17.0%

DEN -7.5%

VAN +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	VAN	NBA	DEN	VAN	NBA
this game	15.2	17.3	15.8	100.0	112.2	99.6
season	15.5	16.4		100.7	95.7
opponent	15.1	15.6		105.4	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.2	15.3	18.6	13.5	15.2
VAN	16.4	18.1	18.3	16.5	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Washington	19	21	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.11	6	-20	26	18.4	14.3	4.08	20.4	16.3	4.11
Johnny Taylor	31	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-11	8	12.0	17.0	-4.97	17.1	17.4	-0.30
Danny Fortson	58	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-14	14	15.0	15.8	-0.79	17.3	17.2	0.09
Carl Herrera	34	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-4	-6	15.6	15.0	0.59	17.5	17.1	0.40
Nick Van Exel	83	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-5	-4	15.0	20.7	-5.79	17.3	17.0	0.29
Chauncey Billups	75	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.00	-17	3	-20	15.5	13.7	1.81	16.7	20.1	-3.39
Bryant Stith	68	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.02	-20	6	-26	14.3	18.4	-4.08	16.3	20.4	-4.11
Antonio McDyess	67	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.13	-17	3	-20	16.8	9.9	6.86	17.8	15.5	2.29

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	83	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.07	18	-4	22	17.3	16.6	0.77	15.1	16.3	-1.15
Mike Bibby	72	70	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.00	18	-4	22	16.5	20.2	-3.68	14.8	16.8	-1.98
Felipe Lopez	65	62	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.02	17	-3	20	17.5	16.6	0.94	14.5	17.2	-2.71
Michael Smith	45	42	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.04	12	2	10	17.8	16.8	0.96	15.1	15.3	-0.21
Cherokee Parks	49	47	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	6	2	16.8	17.9	-1.10	15.5	14.9	0.61
Tony Massenburg	62	63	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.02	9	5	4	16.4	19.1	-2.71	14.0	18.6	-4.63
Terry Dehere	22	22	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	14	-14	16.1	17.7	-1.57	17.1	14.6	2.49
Pete Chilcutt	24	22	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	15	-16	19.6	16.4	3.14	18.5	14.1	4.38
DeJuan Wheat	18	17	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	18	-22	20.2	16.5	3.68	16.8	14.8	1.98
J.R. Henderson	10	10	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.04	-7	21	-28	17.7	17.2	0.47	16.7	15.0	1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, DAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.88,0.79,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%
NOP 96, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.91,0.85,0.98,0.97,1,1	94.2%
CHA 86, NOK 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.65,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.2%