NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	79		Excitement	8.2 [124]		MVP	Will Perdue (SAS): +19.5%
San Antonio Spurs	81		Comeback	2.5 [367]		LVP	Nick Anderson (ORL): -53.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dominique Wilkins	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	15	59%	0.12	3	-0.12	7	71%	-0.02
Michael Doleac	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.06,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	13	54%	0.06	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	5	64%	0.05	4	-0.16	1	100%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	4	25%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	-0.53	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.53	-0.10	-0.44	-0.01	21	37%	-0.51	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.06	0.13	-0.01	4	100%	0.21	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	15	53%	0.08	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.00	-0.14	0.00	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.14	-0.01	15	48%	-0.03	4	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24	-0.24	-0.04	-0.20	0.00	14	51%	-0.18	2	-0.06	9	56%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	1.8	29.1	15.8	26.2	1.7	36.1	131.5
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +50.8%

SAS +1.5%

SAS +7.6%

ORL -17.4%

SAS +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	17.0	15.3	15.8	88.8	91.0	99.6
season	16.1	15.9		98.0	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.6		92.7	95.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.2	18.3	18.1	16.9	17.0
SAS	13.6	14.5	17.0	16.6	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dominique Wilkins	35	34	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.00	10	-12	22	17.8	16.5	1.31	16.0	14.9	1.09
Ike Austin	49	51	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-3	4	18.2	15.6	2.60	17.1	13.0	4.10
Derek Strong	26	27	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.06	-2	0	-2	17.8	16.7	1.15	14.9	15.5	-0.63
Darrell Armstrong	39	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	6	-14	16.6	17.3	-0.70	13.9	16.4	-2.54
Nick Anderson	77	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.45	3	-5	8	17.4	14.7	2.64	15.8	12.0	3.79
Michael Doleac	33	32	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.23	-5	3	-8	15.0	18.2	-3.18	14.2	15.9	-1.68
Anfernee Hardaway	76	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.48	0	-2	2	17.3	15.5	1.84	15.7	13.4	2.27
Horace Grant	49	48	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.41	-7	5	-12	16.3	17.9	-1.57	13.7	17.2	-3.47
Matt Harpring	40	41	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	9	-20	15.5	18.3	-2.74	14.6	15.9	-1.33

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Elie	55	55	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.46	13	-11	24	14.0	17.5	-3.57	17.6	16.1	1.58
Avery Johnson	64	65	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.59	-1	3	-4	15.5	14.8	0.68	17.4	15.9	1.53
Tim Duncan	73	74	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.40	2	0	2	15.3	15.2	0.09	17.0	17.4	-0.44
Sean Elliott	61	61	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.49	-7	9	-16	16.2	13.3	2.92	17.1	16.9	0.26
David Robinson	69	67	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.47	-8	10	-18	15.8	13.7	2.10	17.3	16.4	0.89
Will Perdue	24	26	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.01	7	-5	12	13.0	16.2	-3.18	16.1	17.4	-1.35
Malik Rose	12	11	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.01	3	-1	4	17.2	15.0	2.13	18.5	16.8	1.62
Jerome Kersey	38	38	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.14	8	-6	14	15.6	15.1	0.44	16.7	17.3	-0.56
Antonio Daniels	25	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.15	3	-1	4	14.8	15.5	-0.68	15.9	17.4	-1.53
Jaren Jackson	24	24	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	12	-22	15.7	15.2	0.52	16.0	17.4	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.8,0.69,0.68,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.48,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.34,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 114, NYK 120	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.77,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.34,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.72,1	92.2%
DEN 104, BKN 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.6,0.39,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.42,1	91.4%
MIN 82, SAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.54,0.32,0.72,1	91.0%