NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	82		Excitement	7.4 [329]		MVP	Terry Porter (SAS): +21.9%
San Antonio Spurs	87		Comeback	2.9 [437]		LVP	Anthony Peeler (MIN): -27.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	9	62%	0.09	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Terrell Brandon	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	17	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	5	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0,-0.08	0.03	-0.11	0.00	8	56%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Felipe Lopez	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	4	10%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.28,-0.28	-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	21	26%	-0.15	1	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.22	0.22	0.04	0.17	-0.01	5	79%	0.23	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01	-0.01	0.10	-0.08	0.02	20	66%	0.12	2	-0.13	10	70%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.12	3	-0.17	4	75%	-0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Derek Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.14,-0.14,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	13	40%	-0.07	5	-0.09	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.6	30.2	21.0	26.2	2.7	37.2	147.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +74.5%

SAS +0.3%

SAS +11.8%

MIN -36.2%

MIN -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	16.5	16.8	15.5	95.3	100.0	100.9
season	15.0	15.9		102.9	103.4
opponent	15.5	15.9		96.5	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.1	16.9	17.0	17.2	16.5
SAS	14.3	17.3	20.9	15.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Slater	9	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-5	5	18.2	16.3	1.95	13.7	17.1	-3.38
Chauncey Billups	6	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-4	3	16.8	16.4	0.38	24.0	16.2	7.81
Felipe Lopez	12	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	0	-5	16.2	16.5	-0.36	15.7	17.0	-1.32
Dean Garrett	41	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.39	10	-15	25	17.2	15.8	1.37	18.2	15.6	2.65
LaPhonso Ellis	24	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	1	-7	17.0	16.3	0.78	19.5	15.9	3.62
Rasho Nesterovic	18	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	1	-7	13.8	17.2	-3.34	12.9	17.9	-4.95
Sam Mitchell	17	16	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	5	-15	16.6	16.4	0.21	15.1	17.2	-2.07
Wally Szczerbiak	70	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-10	15	16.2	17.6	-1.33	16.8	16.9	-0.13
Anthony Peeler	74	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.42	0	-5	5	16.5	16.2	0.36	17.0	15.7	1.32
Terrell Brandon	80	80	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-1	-3	16.4	16.8	-0.38	16.2	24.0	-7.81

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	84	83	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-7	19	16.3	30.3	-14.00	16.6	12.3	4.29
David Robinson	58	59	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.40	9	-4	13	16.9	16.6	0.34	15.6	18.4	-2.87
Derek Anderson	71	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	1	3	15.8	21.2	-5.43	15.6	19.7	-4.03
Terry Porter	49	48	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.39	3	2	1	15.3	18.7	-3.41	15.8	17.3	-1.50
Danny Ferry	58	57	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.36	4	1	3	16.5	17.4	-0.90	16.3	16.8	-0.48
Avery Johnson	38	38	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.03	2	3	-1	18.7	15.3	3.41	17.3	15.8	1.50
Sean Elliott	27	28	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	4	-3	18.5	16.0	2.47	17.3	16.1	1.25
Antonio Daniels	18	19	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.04	1	4	-3	19.2	16.2	2.96	18.7	15.8	2.90
Samaki Walker	6	4	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.01	-2	7	-9	11.3	17.2	-5.89	14.2	16.6	-2.34
Malik Rose	26	26	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.01	-9	14	-23	19.4	15.7	3.66	18.4	15.6	2.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.54,0.32,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 109, MIN 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.65,0.83,1	91.3%
ORL 79, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.8,0.69,0.68,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.48,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.34,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.58,1	91.0%
PHI 81, MIA 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.21,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.72,1	90.6%