NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	76		Excitement	6.5 [295]		MVP	Michael Curry (MIL): +12.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	81		Comeback	11.0 [160]		LVP	Ron Harper (CHI): -20.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rusty LaRue	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	3	83%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kornel David	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	1	25%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.05
Dickey Simpkins	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	4	83%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Corey Benjamin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles R. Jones	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	14	59%	0.08	6	-0.20	4	100%	0.02
Randy Brown	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19	-0.03	-0.16	0.00	17	49%	-0.03	2	-0.15	3	67%	-0.02
Toni Kukoc	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.2	-0.07	-0.14	-0.00	18	45%	-0.12	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Ron Harper	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.05,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21	-0.16	-0.06	-0.02	10	27%	-0.10	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.09	0.01	7	71%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	13	57%	0.10	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	7	41%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Tyrone Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	3	60%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	13	47%	0.05	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	8	22%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	12	34%	-0.12	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.3	27.3	15.5	22.7	1.6	31.2	122.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +11.3%

MIL +9.9%

MIL +8.5%

MIL +21.3%

CHI -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.9	15.8	87.4	91.0	99.6
season	16.7	15.8		90.6	102.4
opponent	16.4	15.4		100.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.0	17.3	17.5	18.3	16.8
MIL	19.3	15.5	13.8	15.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kornel David	23	24	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.04	6	-11	17	17.1	16.7	0.44	17.5	15.4	2.15
Corey Benjamin	4	5	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.00	3	-8	11	13.5	17.0	-3.46	22.8	15.5	7.28
Mark Bryant	23	23	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-5	5	17.4	16.6	0.86	15.0	16.3	-1.26
Charles R. Jones	23	23	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-5	5	15.6	17.2	-1.68	18.1	15.2	2.96
Rusty LaRue	6	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-2	-1	17.3	16.8	0.57	14.7	16.1	-1.41
Brent Barry	73	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-3	1	16.5	18.4	-1.94	15.8	16.3	-0.46
Randy Brown	78	80	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-3	1	16.8	16.4	0.40	15.5	19.4	-3.91
Dickey Simpkins	68	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	16.8	16.7	0.15	16.0	15.7	0.30
Toni Kukoc	75	78	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.38	-12	7	-19	17.0	15.7	1.22	15.9	16.4	-0.49
Ron Harper	62	61	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.45	-11	6	-17	17.1	16.0	1.19	15.1	17.8	-2.70

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	54	50	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.49	11	-6	17	15.5	16.5	-1.01	16.0	17.9	-1.89
Ray Allen	67	66	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-1	7	15.5	17.1	-1.60	17.0	16.2	0.81
Tyrone Hill	58	57	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.45	4	1	3	16.0	15.8	0.19	16.6	17.1	-0.50
Glenn Robinson	60	61	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.44	4	1	3	15.7	16.3	-0.56	16.6	17.3	-0.72
Terrell Brandon	64	63	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	1	3	15.3	17.5	-2.15	16.9	16.5	0.42
Dell Curry	35	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.19	5	0	5	15.6	16.1	-0.50	17.7	16.2	1.48
Vinny Del Negro	35	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.16	4	1	3	15.9	15.9	0.02	17.9	16.1	1.76
Armen Gilliam	36	35	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.16	2	3	-1	16.6	15.5	1.19	17.5	16.3	1.14
Robert Traylor	13	13	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.08	-8	13	-21	19.8	15.3	4.58	14.4	17.2	-2.85
Ervin Johnson	23	21	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.03	-7	12	-19	17.1	15.5	1.62	16.0	17.1	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.33,0.45,0.54,0.76,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 86, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.26,0.17,0.2,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.78,0.92,1	92.8%
NYK 115, MIA 120	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.24,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.33,0.61,0.72,0.78,0.73,1	92.1%
ORL 103, NYK 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.45,0.55,0.84,0.95,1	92.1%