NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	115		Excitement	7.7 [282]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +63.3%
Miami Heat	120		Comeback	45.5 [41]		LVP	Chris Duhon (NYK): -9.3%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.26	0.12	0.13	-0.00	8	82%	0.27	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.05
Larry Hughes	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.21,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.17,0.17	-0.01	0.18	0.00	16	56%	0.29	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	56%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Nate Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02	0.11	-0.10	-0.01	21	62%	0.13	2	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	16	39%	-0.06	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Chris Duhon	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	0.07	-0.15	0.02	9	90%	0.13	5	-0.22	3	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.34,0.5,0.63	0.63	0.25	0.44	0.06	29	66%	0.67	2	-0.04	12	100%	0.10
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	0.01	6	57%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	16	56%	0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.02	14	61%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	9	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.6	34.1	16.5	29.3	2.4	48.4	154.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK -11.6%

MIA +6.6%

MIA +24.8%

MIA +34.0%

NYK -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	15.8	15.5	121.1	126.3	106.4
season	13.8	16.0		106.2	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.7	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	13.4	16.2	14.9	13.9	14.5
MIA	17.3	14.5	19.4	12.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wilson Chandler	43	41	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.10	4	-9	13	14.3	14.7	-0.32	16.7	15.1	1.57
Jared Jeffries	26	26	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-6	7	15.2	14.3	0.86	18.1	14.9	3.20
Chris Wilcox	19	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.20	-9	4	-13	15.8	14.2	1.58	14.6	16.1	-1.45
Danilo Gallinari	20	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.19	-9	4	-13	15.4	14.3	1.17	15.2	15.9	-0.79
Nate Robinson	66	66	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-6	7	14.2	15.2	-1.03	14.9	17.9	-3.03
Chris Duhon	75	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.55	4	-9	13	14.3	15.4	-1.17	15.9	15.2	0.79
David Lee	75	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.55	4	-9	13	14.3	15.4	-1.17	15.9	15.2	0.79
Larry Hughes	75	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.54	2	-7	9	14.1	16.0	-1.93	16.1	14.5	1.64
Al Harrington	76	77	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.29	-23	18	-41	15.0	12.6	2.43	15.1	18.7	-3.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	59	59	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.43	16	-11	27	15.3	16.6	-1.23	14.5	14.6	-0.09
Jermaine O'Neal	66	67	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.38	17	-12	29	15.3	17.0	-1.69	15.1	13.1	1.96
Dwyane Wade	82	83	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-3	11	15.5	17.3	-1.76	14.4	15.1	-0.64
Jamario Moon	79	79	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.40	6	-1	7	15.5	17.3	-1.83	14.3	15.4	-1.10
Udonis Haslem	77	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.42	5	0	5	15.8	15.9	-0.12	13.9	17.3	-3.46
Daequan Cook	28	28	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.00	-7	12	-19	17.2	15.2	2.02	14.2	14.7	-0.44
James Jones	37	36	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.11	-8	13	-21	16.6	15.2	1.41	15.4	14.0	1.43
Michael Beasley	47	46	-0.45	0.95	-1.39	-0.10	-12	17	-29	16.6	15.0	1.51	14.8	14.3	0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.24,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.33,0.61,0.72,0.78,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 76, MIL 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.33,0.45,0.54,0.76,0.91,1	92.1%
LAL 95, CLE 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.18,0.13,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.12,0.38,0.54,0.77,0.42,1	91.5%
ORL 79, CHH 80	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.26,0.37,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.19,0.28,0.53,0.72,0.9,0.84,1	90.9%