NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	84		Excitement	11.3 [14]		MVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): +4.0%
Miami Heat	85		Comeback	4.0 [356]		LVP	Patrick Ewing (NYK): -90.6%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Dudley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.01	14	56%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Charlie Ward	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.00	6	42%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	9	41%	0.05	1	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Childs	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.06	0.00	8	56%	-0.00	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Allan Houston	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.13,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.18	-0.07	-0.01	15	19%	-0.19	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Patrick Ewing	-0.91	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.25,-0.41,-0.41,-0.41,-0.32,-0.46,-0.91	-0.13	-0.79	-0.01	26	47%	-0.61	4	-0.30	14	79%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	11	45%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.07,-0.07,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.05	0.00	7	44%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.10
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	54%	0.07	2	-0.10	1	0%	-0.03
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.19,-0.28,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.03,0.03,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	20	40%	0.08	2	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.48,-0.48,-0.55,-0.55,-0.66,-0.66	-0.66	-0.15	-0.53	-0.02	25	44%	-0.51	4	-0.15	13	77%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	27.7	17.0	33.3	2.4	36.5	0.8	15.1	162.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	1.7	18.8	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +61.0%

NYK -9.7%

MIA +4.7%

NYK -0.6%

NYK -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	17.5	17.7	15.8	91.3	95.5	99.6
season	16.0	16.6		97.0	101.3
opponent	16.7	16.6		96.8	95.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NYK	17.1	17.1	16.8	18.2	19.6	17.5
MIA	18.0	19.9	15.1	17.8	17.9	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Dudley	13	13	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.05	3	-4	7	17.9	17.4	0.51	18.3	17.5	0.77
Chris Childs	69	65	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.47	10	-11	21	16.9	19.3	-2.36	17.7	17.6	0.09
Larry Johnson	53	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	2	-5	17.9	16.9	1.03	18.1	17.0	1.14
Kurt Thomas	67	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.05	-11	10	-21	17.9	16.4	1.55	17.3	18.5	-1.15
Allan Houston	83	80	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.32	1	-2	3	17.4	18.1	-0.69	17.2	21.3	-4.10
Charlie Ward	71	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.51	5	-6	11	17.3	18.1	-0.79	18.0	16.4	1.63
Patrick Ewing	74	70	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.50	-4	3	-7	17.3	18.4	-1.12	17.9	16.6	1.36
Dennis Scott	30	30	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.51	-6	5	-11	18.1	17.2	0.91	16.8	18.1	-1.28

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	65	65	0.80	-0.29	1.09	0.59	7	-6	13	18.2	16.2	1.98	17.9	16.4	1.48
Tim Hardaway	73	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.46	-2	3	-5	17.9	16.7	1.18	17.4	18.0	-0.64
Rex Walters	30	32	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	-3	7	17.5	17.7	-0.28	18.1	17.1	0.97
Terry Porter	55	55	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	3	-5	17.5	18.0	-0.52	17.2	18.0	-0.81
Alonzo Mourning	78	84	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	1	-1	17.5	18.7	-1.23	17.2	20.0	-2.75
Keith Askins	40	41	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	-5	11	16.8	18.3	-1.55	17.9	17.2	0.70
Clar. Weatherspoon	32	33	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.12	1	0	1	17.1	17.9	-0.82	17.5	17.5	-0.05
Dan Majerle	72	76	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.27	-9	10	-19	18.1	15.9	2.11	17.3	18.5	-1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.2,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.52,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.54,0.45,0.85,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.55,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 86, CHA 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.73,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	89.1%
MEM 115, GSW 118	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.6,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.3,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.47,0.64,0.43,0.85,0.54,0.38,0.37,0.57,0.73,1	88.8%
IND 102, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.69,0.54,0.86,0.72,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.23,0.16,1	88.1%