NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	112		Excitement	7.0 [237]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +29.8%
Denver Nuggets	116		Comeback	1.6 [577]		LVP	Felipe Lopez (VAN): -11.2%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pete Chilcutt	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.29,0.29	0.08	0.21	0.00	4	100%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	9	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Tony Massenburg	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	15	63%	0.06	1	0.00	13	54%	-0.08
Doug West	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Wheat	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lee Mayberry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Michael Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	80%	0.07	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Bryant Reeves	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	14	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Cherokee Parks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.10	0.03	-0.02	15	46%	0.03	3	-0.08	9	89%	0.03
Sam Mack	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.03	2	50%	-0.07	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,0.3	0.30	-0.08	0.38	-0.00	11	55%	0.44	6	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	4	100%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.04	0.05	25	68%	0.19	3	-0.07	18	78%	0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	5	90%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Meyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	6	50%	-0.00	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	27.7	15.8	27.4	1.8	31.2	130.7
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.1%

DEN +13.3%

DEN +8.6%

DEN +2.6%

DEN +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	DEN	NBA	VAN	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	13.3	15.8	110.9	113.7	99.6
season	16.4	15.5		95.7	100.7
opponent	15.6	15.1		107.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	15.8	14.0	16.0	14.3	15.0
DEN	10.5	14.8	13.3	15.0	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Smith	42	43	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.07	7	-11	18	13.5	16.1	-2.61	16.5	11.0	5.49
Bryant Reeves	50	49	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-5	6	16.4	13.7	2.71	13.7	13.0	0.73
Pete Chilcutt	20	20	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.34	10	-14	24	14.5	15.2	-0.62	15.0	12.9	2.14
Sam Mack	59	60	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-4	4	14.8	15.4	-0.65	14.8	11.3	3.52
Doug West	32	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.07	-2	-2	0	17.2	14.1	3.13	9.3	15.1	-5.81
DeJuan Wheat	9	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	2	-8	19.2	14.6	4.58	8.2	13.8	-5.61
Lee Mayberry	18	20	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-2	0	13.8	15.3	-1.55	15.4	12.8	2.63
Mike Bibby	74	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.34	4	-8	12	14.9	15.6	-0.74	13.4	13.2	0.18
Felipe Lopez	33	33	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-5	6	14.6	15.3	-0.70	13.4	13.3	0.09
Tony Massenburg	51	53	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	1	-6	13.7	16.4	-2.71	13.0	13.7	-0.73
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	83	84	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	1	-6	14.7	16.8	-2.17	13.3	13.4	-0.13
Cherokee Parks	34	35	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.06	-23	19	-42	17.1	14.0	3.07	9.5	15.3	-5.77

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	53	53	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	-5	14	11.8	15.0	-3.25	14.9	15.2	-0.34
Cory Alexander	64	62	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.04	15	-11	26	12.1	15.3	-3.20	15.4	14.4	1.00
Antonio McDyess	87	86	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	2	0	13.9	9.9	3.99	14.7	17.1	-2.37
Eric Washington	39	37	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.35	0	4	-4	13.5	13.2	0.25	15.8	14.6	1.16
Nick Van Exel	60	61	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.41	-3	7	-10	14.1	12.3	1.82	15.8	13.9	1.86
Chauncey Billups	81	81	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.35	-3	7	-10	13.6	12.1	1.50	14.1	18.7	-4.61
Loren Meyer	11	10	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	2	0	9.9	13.7	-3.84	16.9	14.8	2.05
Bryant Stith	26	24	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	0	4	14.7	12.9	1.82	13.7	15.5	-1.81
Eric Williams	34	35	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	3	-2	12.0	14.0	-2.04	15.7	14.7	0.93
Danny Fortson	55	56	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	11	-18	14.8	11.6	3.18	15.2	14.8	0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.59,0.61,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.73,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.95,0.86,0.97,0.76,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 86, NYK 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.85,0.84,1	93.2%
LAC 93, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.55,0.66,0.77,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.97,1,0.99,0.97,0.93,0.89,0.94,0.84,1	92.7%
CLE 77, WAS 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.76,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.59,1	92.4%