NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	7.3 [194]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +33.5%
Charlotte Hornets	94		Comeback	8.4 [110]		LVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): -17.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.03,-0.02,0.07,0.29,0.33	0.12	0.22	0.01	23	60%	0.35	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Marty Conlon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Davis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	19	58%	0.07	6	-0.16	12	75%	-0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	6	40%	-0.04	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Terry Porter	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	0.00	6	33%	-0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	5	42%	-0.06	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.07

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.10	0.01	7	82%	0.20	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.07
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.11	0.00	6	67%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.00	0.02	7	100%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.09	-0.01	12	63%	0.17	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.05
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	8	36%	-0.10	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Bobby Phills	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	14	47%	-0.04	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.05
Charles Shackleford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	6	36%	-0.05	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	34.0	15.7	25.6	2.0	36.1	142.3
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +0.9%

CHH +19.0%

CHH +4.7%

CHH +18.2%

CHH +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHH	NBA	MIA	CHH	NBA
this game	16.5	16.6	15.8	105.8	106.8	99.6
season	16.6	15.7		101.3	99.2
opponent	15.5	16.7		99.4	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.7	17.2	18.9	16.5
CHH	16.1	17.0	14.1	20.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rex Walters	10	9	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.04	7	-10	17	13.7	16.8	-3.12	20.8	16.2	4.60
P.J. Brown	50	50	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-6	9	17.4	15.2	2.17	17.4	15.6	1.83
Mark Davis	9	10	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-4	5	9.7	17.2	-7.58	15.6	16.8	-1.18
Keith Askins	29	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	5	-13	17.6	15.9	1.76	16.0	16.9	-0.91
Mark Strickland	30	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	0	-3	17.1	16.1	0.94	16.5	16.7	-0.25
Alonzo Mourning	72	73	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.37	4	-7	11	16.0	18.6	-2.53	16.9	15.3	1.66
Marty Conlon	9	10	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	3	-9	19.0	16.2	2.84	13.5	17.1	-3.55
Terry Porter	43	44	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.52	5	-8	13	16.1	16.8	-0.72	18.0	15.2	2.80
Tim Hardaway	71	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	2	-7	16.8	14.7	2.16	16.1	19.4	-3.32
Dan Majerle	66	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.35	-6	3	-9	16.8	15.2	1.63	16.3	17.8	-1.56
Clar. Weatherspoon	41	43	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.33	-7	4	-11	15.5	17.3	-1.80	16.0	17.3	-1.31

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wesley	77	76	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.33	14	-11	25	16.5	17.7	-1.23	16.7	14.7	1.98
Bobby Phills	76	74	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.39	10	-7	17	16.4	17.9	-1.47	17.0	12.8	4.21
Chuck Person	57	57	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-9	21	15.2	19.3	-4.08	16.1	17.2	-1.14
Derrick Coleman	58	58	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	0	3	18.1	13.9	4.22	16.8	15.7	1.10
J.R. Reid	58	58	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	-9	21	15.7	18.5	-2.86	17.5	14.2	3.27
Charles Shackleford	38	35	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	-5	13	15.6	17.5	-1.93	16.7	16.3	0.49
Chucky Brown	31	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.24	-9	12	-21	19.3	15.2	4.08	17.2	16.1	1.14
Joe Wolf	13	12	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.10	-8	11	-19	16.7	16.6	0.05	10.6	17.4	-6.82
Brad Miller	9	9	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.08	-9	12	-21	18.2	16.5	1.75	14.0	16.7	-2.74
Ricky Davis	12	12	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	10	-17	17.9	16.4	1.47	12.8	17.0	-4.21
B.J. Armstrong	11	10	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.08	-11	14	-25	17.7	16.5	1.23	14.7	16.7	-1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.33,0.21,0.31,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.77,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 89, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.44,0.37,0.52,0.5,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.98,1	92.4%
DEN 95, DET 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.71,0.83,0.75,0.95,0.9,0.96,1	92.3%
SAS 88, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.71,0.84,0.85,1	91.9%