NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	95		Excitement	6.6 [483]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +22.0%
Detroit Pistons	100		Comeback	4.7 [349]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -17.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.21	0.04	0.03	19	74%	0.27	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.04
Nene	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	67%	0.18	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Dahntay Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	16	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Linas Kleiza	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Renaldo Balkman	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	18%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	13	21%	-0.18	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.08	-0.00	10	73%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.01	15	68%	0.23	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.08	-0.02	8	65%	0.22	3	-0.09	10	90%	0.05
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	12	62%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kwame Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	18	49%	0.04	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.03
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.3	33.4	17.5	26.2	2.8	35.2	146.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +35.1%

DET +18.8%

DEN -1.4%

DEN -6.6%

DET +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DET	NBA	DEN	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	18.3	15.5	114.5	120.5	106.4
season	14.4	16.9		109.5	104.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		106.2	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	15.5	16.4	17.8	16.3
DET	17.5	16.4	17.1	23.2	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	22	24	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.15	8	-13	21	16.4	16.3	0.08	18.5	18.3	0.27
Kenyon Martin	61	58	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-3	1	16.4	16.1	0.29	17.5	20.2	-2.71
Linas Kleiza	48	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-4	3	15.7	17.2	-1.52	17.6	19.3	-1.66
J.R. Smith	49	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.39	4	-9	13	16.6	15.9	0.69	18.4	18.2	0.21
Renaldo Balkman	36	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.39	4	-9	13	16.3	16.4	-0.08	20.5	16.5	4.02
Chris Andersen	31	31	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-2	-1	16.8	16.1	0.68	17.6	18.8	-1.23
Chauncey Billups	69	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	3	-11	16.0	18.1	-2.16	18.2	19.1	-0.87
Dahntay Jones	30	30	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.11	-19	14	-33	16.6	16.2	0.44	17.4	18.9	-1.49
Nene	69	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	3	-11	16.6	15.2	1.37	19.1	14.0	5.08

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	77	77	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.29	12	-7	19	18.4	17.7	0.74	16.4	15.8	0.56
Antonio McDyess	64	65	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-3	11	18.6	17.6	1.00	16.6	15.4	1.16
Rodney Stuckey	60	60	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	-4	13	18.9	16.9	2.05	15.8	17.8	-1.98
Rasheed Wallace	58	59	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.19	9	-4	13	17.7	19.9	-2.19	16.1	17.0	-0.92
Richard Hamilton	69	69	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	5	-5	17.7	21.6	-3.88	16.0	18.1	-2.16
Jason Maxiell	27	26	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	3	-1	19.5	17.8	1.73	17.0	16.0	1.00
Walter Herrmann	20	20	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.15	-2	7	-9	20.4	17.7	2.70	17.4	16.0	1.45
Will Bynum	23	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	9	-13	16.9	18.9	-2.05	17.8	15.8	1.98
Amir Johnson	4	5	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	8	-11	17.2	18.4	-1.16	17.4	16.3	1.12
Kwame Brown	13	11	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	11	-17	18.1	18.4	-0.32	14.2	16.7	-2.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.71,0.83,0.75,0.95,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 93, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.92,0.94,0.83,1	93.5%
NJN 83, BOS 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.61,0.68,0.89,0.99,0.95,1	93.5%
CLE 88, PHX 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.89,0.99,1,0.98,1	93.3%